Renato Moicano was supposed to spend Halloween night running it back with Brian Ortega. Ortega withdrew, Tom Nolan stepped in, and now a rising Australian lightweight gets the biggest assignment of his career in the main event of UFC Vegas 123 on Saturday, Oct. 31, at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. The 12-fight card streams on Paramount+, with the main card at 8 p.m. ET.
The betting market barely has a favorite. Yahoo Sports listed Moicano at -120 and Nolan at +100, which is about as close to a coin flip as a ranked lightweight headliner gets. The previews can’t agree either. Yahoo’s breakdown picked Moicano, while Lindy’s Sports went with Nolan by TKO. MMA Junkie and UFC.com also ran their own breakdowns of the matchup this week.
Where both men stand
Moicano, 37, comes in off a rebound win over Chris Duncan, also at the Apex, back in April. Yahoo’s preview framed him as a gatekeeper at this point, a durable and dangerous grappler who probably won’t see another title shot but is chasing a specific goal: fighting out the final three bouts of his UFC contract. Matchups like this one move that clock along quickly. The same preview pointed back to what Moicano did to Benoit Saint Denis as proof that his top game is as mean as anyone’s at 155 pounds.
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Nolan, 26, has turned his UFC run around since an upset loss to Nikolas Motta in his promotional debut. He’s won five straight since then, and Yahoo noted he’s looked sharper in each one against progressively more experienced opponents. The catch is that none of those five had a submission game in Moicano’s tier. The UFC is selling Nolan’s personality as hard as his striking, billing him on X as “Entertaining inside and outside the octagon” ahead of fight week.
The tactical outline is simple to describe and much harder to execute. Nolan is the faster, fresher striker and should win the open exchanges at range. Moicano needs one clean entry, either a level change off a Nolan combination or a clinch along the fence, to drag this into the positions where he does his best work. Lindy’s leaned on the age gap and Nolan’s prime-years athleticism. Yahoo leaned on the fact that once Moicano gets on top, the other guy’s night tends to get very long.
The undercard won’t rescue anyone’s Saturday. Yahoo handed the lineup an F, and the co-main between Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith (-280) is the only other main card bout with real heat. Flyweight fans get Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden, a matchup that was scrapped by injuries before and finally happens here, which is more than I can say for a lot of Apex bookings.
Quick take
I’m taking Moicano, and I’m comfortable doing it. Nolan’s five-fight run is legitimate, but beating people who can’t punish a takedown attempt is a different job from defending one against a veteran who chains his entries and doesn’t waste top position once he gets it. Nolan will probably bank the first few minutes on the feet. The first time he plants to throw something heavy and Moicano changes levels underneath it, the fight moves into Moicano’s territory, and the 37-year-old has made a career of finishing people there. Moicano by submission, likely in Round 2 or Round 3.
