Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline UFC Vegas 123 this Saturday, Oct. 31, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, and the most interesting thing about the five-round lightweight main event right now might be the price. VSiN reported that Nolan opened as a -170 favorite. Moicano is now the slight favorite, at -125 on BetMGM (Nolan +105) and -115 at VSiN (Nolan -105).
The full 12-fight card streams on Paramount+ in the U.S. There’s no pay-per-view because this is a Fight Night, which MMA Junkie lists as UFC Fight Night 292. Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) and the main card goes at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT), per UFC.com and Sherdog. In the U.K. and Ireland it’s on TNT Sports, with prelims at 9 p.m. GMT Saturday and the main card at midnight GMT on Sunday, Nov. 1. Canadian viewers get it on Sportsnet+. Paramount+ Essential runs $8.99 a month and Premium is $13.99, and both include UFC events.
The main event
Moicano (21-7-1, 13-7 UFC) is coming off a rear-naked choke of Chris Duncan in Round 2 on April 4. That win stopped a two-fight skid: a lightweight title loss to Islam Makhachev in January 2025 and a unanimous decision loss to Beneil Dariush that June. The UFC says he’s defending his top-10 spot here.
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Nolan (11-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five straight since Nikolas Motta beat him in his UFC debut in January 2024, most recently a unanimous decision over Farès Ziam on June 6. He’s ranked No. 12, and this is his first main event and his first five-round fight. He told MMA Fighting he originally took the fight on a week’s notice for UFC 331 after Brian Ortega withdrew, and said Moicano’s team asked for more time. That’s how we got to Halloween.
The physical gap is real. Nolan is 6-foot-3 and 26. Moicano is 5-foot-11 and 37.
The rest of the card
Randy Brown (20-8) meets unbeaten Jacobe Smith (13-0) at welterweight in the co-main, with Smith stepping in for the injured Carlos Leal. Ode’ Osbourne fights Cody Durden at flyweight, and Yana Santos faces Luana Santos at women’s bantamweight. I haven’t seen a number posted on the Santos fight in the coverage so far, so I won’t make one up. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani opens the main card against Farman Hasanov, who Championship Rounds noted is undefeated.
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Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope leads the prelims at featherweight (Hope replaced Gaston Bolaños). Also on the early card: Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren, Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee, Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall, Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot, Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez and Lucia Szabová vs. Tainara Lisboa. Azamat Bekoev vs. Andre Petroski is off after Bekoev withdrew with a medical emergency, per Bloody Elbow.
My take: a move from -170 to plus money is the market telling you it overreacted on the open, and I’ll take the correction gladly. Moicano’s grappling is legit and he has the five-round reps, but I’m not paying a premium for a 37-year-old who went 1-2 over his last three. The kid is 26, seven inches taller on the tape and riding five straight. Nolan at +105 is the bet I’d make, and I’ve made worse ones before lunch.
