UFC Canada made it official on X on Nov. 3. Joshua Van defends the flyweight title against Manel Kape in the UFC 336 main event on Jan. 30, with tickets going on sale Nov. 20.
The flyweights weren’t the original plan for the top of that card. Carlos Prates told Laerte Viana, in comments relayed by MMA Fighting, that he was already in camp to challenge Islam Makhachev for the welterweight title on that date when the UFC called to say the champion no longer wanted it. Prates didn’t hide how he felt. “He chickened out,” he said. So Prates now meets the undefeated Michael Morales (19-0) for an interim belt in the co-main, and the 125-pound title fight moves up to headline. As someone who would happily watch flyweights close every card, I’ll take it.
The fight that should have happened first
This matchup has a strange origin. Kape was booked against Brandon Royval at UFC 317 on June 28, 2025, broke his foot, and withdrew. Van took the fight on three weeks’ notice and beat Royval by unanimous decision. The two combined for 419 significant strikes, a record for a three-round UFC fight and for any flyweight bout, and the fight was named Fight of the Year at the World MMA Awards.
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Van hasn’t slowed down since. He won the belt from Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323 on Dec. 6, 2025, when Pantoja hurt his arm falling after Van caught a kick, 26 seconds into Round 1. He stopped Tatsuro Taira in Round 5 at UFC 328 on May 9, then beat Pantoja again by unanimous decision at UFC 331 on Sept. 19. According to Wikipedia, he became the first UFC champion born in the 2000s and sits No. 6 pound-for-pound.
Look at the UFC Meta rankings MMA Mania published this week. Kape is No. 1, Pantoja No. 2, Royval No. 3 and Taira No. 4. Van has beaten the other three. The man whose injury opened the door is the last top-four flyweight Van hasn’t faced.
What Van brings
Van’s game is built on volume and the willingness to keep throwing when the fight gets ugly. The Royval number tells you the pace he’ll accept. The Taira finish in Round 5 tells you he can still hurt people deep into a title fight.
The most useful data point for this matchup came in the Pantoja rematch. Yahoo Sports noted that Pantoja landed five takedowns, which most people thought was his winning route, and Van still took over the striking later in the fight and got the nod. My read: a champion who can absorb an elite grappler’s best plan and win the back half of a five-rounder has real cardio and a real ability to adjust. That’s the trait I value most in a fighter, and Kape will need a plan for Rounds 4 and 5 that doesn’t depend on Van fading.
The hole in the résumé is real, though. Charles Johnson knocked Van out in Round 3 at UFC on ESPN 59 in July 2024. Van can be hit and hurt, and Kape’s entire highlight reel is about hitting people hard.
What Kape brings
Kape had boxing matches before his first MMA fight at 14, turned pro in 2012, and won bantamweight titles in both Knock Out Championship and Rizin. His Rizin run is where you see the weapons. He knocked out Erson Yamamoto with a left head kick in 71 seconds. He dropped Seiichiro Ito with a left hook to the body in Round 2. He hurt Takeya Mizugaki with an uppercut before finishing him with a right hook, also in Round 2. In the Kai Asakura rematch for the vacant Rizin bantamweight belt, Asakura tried to work behind his reach and Kape kept blitzing in until he got the TKO with punches in Round 2.
Notice where those finishes land. Rounds 1 and 2. Kape’s danger peaks early, and it comes from multiple angles: head kicks, body hooks, uppercuts.
His losses have their own pattern. Kyoji Horiguchi submitted him with an arm triangle in Round 3. Ulka Sasaki beat him comfortably on the cards by mixing striking with a strong ground game. Asakura edged him on a split decision in their first meeting. My read is that Kape has struggled most when opponents made him work in more than one phase and dragged him past the window where his power does the talking.
The exchanges that decide it
I see two moments that matter.
The first is Kape’s blitz against Van’s composure in the opening 10 minutes. Van has been knocked out before, and Kape’s best work comes in exactly that stretch. If Kape lands clean early, the Johnson fight stops being an old footnote.
The second is the kick game. Kape throws to the head, and his fastest Rizin knockout came off a left kick. Van won the belt by catching Pantoja’s kick. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of a 26-second freak injury, but my read is that every kick Kape throws carries real risk of getting caught and countered by a champion who has already shown he reads that shot.
If Van gets through the first two rounds without taking serious damage, I think the fight tilts hard in his direction. His output in Rounds 3 through 5 has beaten Royval, Taira and Pantoja. Kape’s résumé doesn’t show the same proof of late-fight takeover, at least in the sources I’m working from.
What it means for 125
A Van win clears the top four entirely. The next names on the Meta list are Lone’er Kavanagh (No. 5), Asu Almabayev (No. 6) and Kyoji Horiguchi (No. 7), and Horiguchi already owns a submission win over Kape from their Rizin Grand Prix semifinal. A Kape win gives him the belt Van has carried since the night after Kape’s foot gave out, which would be a hell of a full-circle story.
My pick is Van by decision, with a real chance of another late stoppage if Kape empties the tank chasing the knockout early. Kape is the most dangerous single-shot striker Van has faced at the top of the division. Van is the better five-round fighter, and five rounds is the job on Jan. 30.
