Tatiana Suarez hasn’t beaten Virna Jandiroba yet, and she’s already named the next opponent. Suarez said a title shot against Mackenzie Dern “makes sense” if she wins Saturday at UFC Vegas 124, according to MMA Junkie, which posted her comments on X Wednesday night.
She didn’t bother with the one-fight-at-a-time routine. I respect it.
Suarez (12-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC) meets Jandiroba (23-4 MMA, 9-4 UFC) in the co-main event Nov. 7 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, with the main card on Paramount+ at 8 p.m. ET. The card was built around Sean Brady vs. Gabriel Bonfim until Brady got hurt and the headliner was scrapped. The UFC replaced it with Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker, two heavyweights stepping in on short notice for five rounds. Whoever made that call deserves a drink.
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Why Dern
The logic holds up on paper. Jandiroba has lost to Dern twice, and MMA Mania’s preview said those defeats effectively killed her momentum. Suarez has never fought Dern. Beat the woman Dern already beat twice and you become the fresh name at 115 pounds.
There’s a grappling subplot too. Per MMA Junkie’s pre-event numbers, Suarez’s four submission wins at strawweight are tied for second in divisional history, one behind Dern’s five.
The rest of her numbers are absurd for a wrestler. She has finished eight of her 12 pro wins, including five of nine in the UFC, which ties her for second in strawweight history behind Jessica Andrade’s six. She has landed at least one takedown on all 10 of her UFC opponents. She connects on 59.7 percent of her significant strikes and absorbs just 1.7 significant strikes per minute, both the best rates the division has ever recorded.
The matchup
Oddsmakers have Suarez at -185 and Jandiroba at +165. MMA Mania’s breakdown picked Suarez by decision and argued that in a three-round fight she only needs to control two rounds and keep her neck away from Jandiroba’s submissions. Jandiroba is no passive grappler, either. She has landed at least one takedown against 12 of her 13 UFC opponents.
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The question with Suarez has always been health. The same preview listed her injury history as the X-factor. Illness and injury pushed her title shot back for years, and by the time she finally shared the cage with Zhang Weili, the writer argued she had lost a step. She’s 35 now. She’s also won two straight and has been fighting consistently, including an April appearance against Loopy Godinez at UFC 327 in Miami.
The UFC’s own promo for her on X went with “Focused on her ultimate goal 😤” which is about as cryptic as a fight company can get while still technically saying something. Suarez at least said it out loud, in plain words.
My take: she’s right, and it isn’t close. If she drags Jandiroba to the mat for 15 minutes and walks out with her neck intact, she’s the one contender at strawweight Dern hasn’t already solved, and the wrestler vs. submission artist pairing sells itself. First she has to do it. Saturday, Paramount+, 8 p.m. ET.
