UFC Vegas 124 lost its welterweight headliner when Sean Brady withdrew from his fight with Gabriel Bonfim with a knee staph infection, and the promotion has bumped heavyweights Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Johnny Walker into the five-round main event. Athlon, via Yahoo Sports, reported that both men accepted on relatively short notice. The card runs Saturday, Nov. 7, at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Paramount+. Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET and the main card at 8 p.m. ET.
Yahoo’s X-Factor preview didn’t sugarcoat the reshuffle. It asked what happens when a mediocre card loses its main event and offered “nothing good” as one acceptable answer. Harsh. Also not wrong about the depth.
The main event
Cortes-Acosta (17-4) is 35 and coming off a unanimous decision loss to Curtis Blaydes, which followed a loss to Alexander Volkov. Athlon noted he had early success against Blaydes before fading under the wrestling pressure. His best win remains Derrick Lewis. Walker (23-10) is 34 and moved up from light heavyweight with a first-round flying knee knockout of Mick Parkin in his heavyweight debut.
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The tape tells most of the story. Walker stands 6-foot-6 with an 82-inch reach. Cortes-Acosta is 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach, so he gives up four inches of wingspan and has to find a way inside a long, weird kicking game. The odd wrinkle is the calendar: both men are fighting less than a month after their last appearances. One is coming off a 15-minute grind, the other off a highlight-reel finish that probably didn’t cost him much gas.
Lines worth a look
Per Yahoo’s preview, Tatiana Suarez is -185 against Virna Jandiroba (+165) at strawweight. Suarez has won two straight. The number that matters for Suarez backers is that Jandiroba has one submission win in her last 10 fights, which takes some of the scare out of a wrestler living in her guard.
The bantamweight line between Davey Grant and Elijah Smith is printed as Grant +205 and Smith +280. Both guys at plus money is either a typo or the greatest arbitrage gift in history, so check your book. What’s clear is the 16-year age gap. Grant is 40, Smith is 3-0 in the UFC, and Yahoo’s writer picked Grant by decision anyway, citing cardio and how often the judges have shorted him (by his count, Grant should have won six of his last seven).
Seokhyeon Ko sits at -800 over Wellington Turman (+510) at welterweight, a price the preview called a touch wide even though Turman has dropped three straight. Lucas Fernando is -295 over Billy Elekana (+240) at light heavyweight, with Fernando picked by knockout. At middleweight, Mantas Kondratavicius is -320 against Andre Petroski (+250). Kondratavicius has eight stoppages in nine wins, and Petroski has lost three in a row.
Quick take
I’ll take a fighter with elite cardio at plus money over a 16-years-younger prospect I’m being told is a sure thing, so Grant is my live dog of the night, at whatever price your book actually posts. In the main event, the Blaydes fight is the data point I can’t shake. Cortes-Acosta faded when the pace got ugly, and now he’s on a short turnaround against a guy who wants to keep him at the end of an 82-inch reach. If Walker keeps the fight long, Cortes-Acosta takes his third straight loss by Saturday night.
