Renato Moicano will close out the UFC’s October schedule as a betting underdog. The former lightweight title challenger headlines UFC Vegas 123 (also billed as UFC Fight Night 292) against Australia’s Tom Nolan on Saturday, Oct. 31, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, and the odds published by MMA Junkie have Nolan at -125 with Moicano coming back at +105.
The UFC rolled out its fight-by-fight preview Monday. The promotion’s news account on X teased it by saying “a rising Australian lightweight looks to unseat a Brazilian veteran in the main event,” followed by the eyes emoji, because apparently every fight announcement now needs one.
Moicano is 21-7-1 overall and 13-7 in the UFC, with a resume that includes Benoit Saint Denis, Jalin Turner, Drew Dober, Brad Riddell, Cub Swanson and Calvin Kattar. His 2025 was strange even by lightweight standards. He got the call to fight Islam Makhachev for the title at UFC 311 on a day’s notice after Arman Tsarukyan withdrew on weigh-in day, and he was submitted in the first round. Six months later he dropped a decision to Beneil Dariush, the guy he was originally booked to fight at UFC 311 before the title opportunity landed in his lap.
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He got right in April, submitting Chris Duncan in Round 2. UFC.com’s preview has him defending a Top 10 spot here, and this will be his second main event of 2026. For the record, the preview now refers to Makhachev as the current welterweight champion.
Nolan is 11-1 overall and 5-1 in the UFC. The 26-year-old came through Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023, then lost his promotional debut in 63 seconds. He hasn’t lost since. His five-fight streak includes first-round finishes of Charlie Campbell and Victor Martinez, with the Campbell submission earning a bonus 13 months ago. His most recent outing was the biggest win of his career, a unanimous decision over Fares Ziam.
This is his first UFC main event and his first scheduled five-rounder.
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The rest of the card
The co-main is a welterweight bout with a short-notice twist. Jacobe Smith (13-0, 4-0 UFC) replaces Carlos Leal against Randy Brown (20-8, 14-8 UFC), and he’s doing it on less than two weeks’ notice after beating Bruce Whitehead at UFC 332 earlier this month. Smith, a former Oklahoma State wrestler and 2018 All-American, has 11 stoppages in 13 wins, 10 of them by knockout. He’s -255. Brown is working off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, most recently a decision against Kevin Holland earlier this year.
Also on the main card: Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos at bantamweight, Cody Durden vs. Ode Osbourne at flyweight, Mickey Gall vs. Zach Reese at middleweight and Farman Hasanov vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani at welterweight. Gall hasn’t fought since November 2024, when he lost his fourth straight.
Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8 p.m. ET.
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My quick take: I’ll take the plus money on the guy who said yes to Makhachev with one day to prepare. Nolan has earned this spot, and a 26-year-old riding five straight wins deserves the bump. But he has never seen a fourth round, and Moicano has spent years in deep water with the best lightweights alive. If Nolan is still standing in front of him at the start of Round 4 on Saturday night, then we’ll know he belongs.
