Bo Nickal is an underdog. Opening lines for UFC 335 list him at +125 against Joe Pyfer, who opened at -157, and that makes this the first time in Nickal’s UFC career that the books have priced him as the guy expected to lose. The number made the rounds on r/MMA on Monday, and MMA Junkie had already posted its odds breakdown for the matchup on X late last week.
The fight is booked for December 12, which is a long runway for a line to wander around. Expect it to.
In plain percentages, -157 implies roughly a 61% chance for Pyfer and +125 implies about 44% for Nickal. Add those up and you get north of 105%, which is the house reminding you who actually wins every fight on the card.
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How They Got Here
Pyfer has earned the favorite tag. He’s 7-1 in the UFC since landing his contract on his second trip through the Contender Series in 2022, and he’s riding a four-fight win streak over Marc-Andre Barriault, Kelvin Gastelum, Abus Magomedov and, most recently, former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. That Adesanya win came in March, when Pyfer pounded him out in the second round. Pyfer sits at No. 4 in the middleweight rankings, per Cageside Press, and Yahoo Sports listed him among the fighters ranked above Brendan Allen, who just defended his No. 5 spot at UFC Vegas 122.
Nickal comes in at No. 12 and 6-1 in the promotion. His lone UFC loss came in May 2025 against Reinier de Ridder, the former ONE champion. Since then he’s stopped Rodolfo Vieira and Kyle Daukaus. Neither of those names carries the weight of a former champ, and the books know it.
The matchup is already shaping the division’s bookings. After Christian Leroy Duncan got choked out by Allen in the fifth round of last Saturday’s main event, snapping a five-fight win streak, Cageside Press floated the loser of Nickal vs. Pyfer as Duncan’s ideal next opponent. Allen, meanwhile, is angling for someone ranked above him, and with Pyfer tied up until December, Yahoo Sports pointed him toward Khamzat Chimaev or Dricus du Plessis instead.
Sal’s Take
I’ve watched the betting public treat Nickal like a sure thing for years, and I’ve watched plenty of people stuff him into 10-leg parlays like he was a vending machine that only dispenses winning tickets. So there’s a little justice in seeing him at plus money. The case for Pyfer is easy to make: eight-spot ranking gap, four straight wins, and a stoppage of a former champion on his résumé while Nickal’s best post-loss win is over Vieira. That’s why he’s favored and I won’t argue the direction. I’ll argue the price. A guy who’s 6-1 in the UFC with two straight stoppages getting +125 at No. 12 is the kind of number I like to sit on for a few weeks, because a hyped fighter making his first appearance as an underdog tends to draw money back toward him once the casuals notice. If you like Nickal, the opener might be the best ticket you see before December 12. If you like Pyfer, I’d wait and see whether -157 drifts shorter or longer before laying it.
