Israel Adesanya has lost four straight, left the only MMA gym he’s ever called home three months ago, and is apparently headed for a main event anyway. Kevin K reported on X on October 5 that the former two-time middleweight champion is being targeted to face Shara Magomedov on November 28 in Saudi Arabia. He added, “This is expected to be the main event as well, I’m told per multiple sources.”
Nothing is official, and the UFC hasn’t announced the event. The calendar does have a convenient hole in it, though. UFC Qatar sits on November 21 and UFC 335 lands December 12, which leaves a three-week gap for what would be the promotion’s third trip to the Kingdom. Michael Morales has also posted private messages with Ian Garry about fighting each other on the same rumored card, so this is shaping up as a real show if it happens.
Why this fight got made
The matchmaking logic is easy to follow, because Magomedov asked for it out loud. After beating Michel Pereira at UFC Baku in June, his second straight win and sixth in the Octagon, he called out Adesanya by name. He said plainly that he wants to climb the middleweight ladder by beating one of its biggest names.
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There was a family wrinkle that night. Abus Magomedov submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk in the first round on the same card and also asked for Adesanya. At the post-fight press conference, Shara said he’d step aside and let Abus have it if the chance came up. Apparently the chance went the other direction.
The rankings explain the rest. The current Meta rankings have Adesanya at No. 9 at middleweight and Abus at No. 13, while Shara doesn’t appear in the top 15 at all. That’s the classic trade. The unranked climber gets a famous name and a headlining slot, and the ranked veteran on a skid gets a featured spot to try to stop the bleeding.
What’s actually been going wrong
The Pyfer loss is the clearest film we have. At UFC Seattle in March, Joe Pyfer stopped Adesanya in Round 2 with heavy ground and pound at Climate Pledge Arena. Pyfer (16-3, 10 knockout wins) is listed by the UFC as a boxer, but he also has four submission wins. That night, the fight ended because Adesanya ended up underneath him.
That’s the detail I’d circle in red. Adesanya built his identity standing up. He started kickboxing at 18, went 32-1 as an amateur, won regional tournaments in New Zealand and fought for a Glory middleweight title. Even his kickboxing losses happened at a level most MMA fighters never see. Alex Pereira beat him twice, the second time with a short left hook in the third round.
My read on Seattle is that it was positional. Adesanya was fighting from his back against a strong, heavy-handed middleweight, and from there his best tools had nothing to do. A man with that kickboxing résumé doesn’t lose four in a row because he forgot how to throw a kick.
How Magomedov plays out (my read)
Everything here comes down to where the fight takes place. If Magomedov decides his best route to a career-making win is trading with Adesanya at range, he’s choosing the version of the fight that Adesanya has been winning since before either man was in the UFC. That’s a bet a lot of strikers have made against him, and the record says it usually goes badly for the guy making it.
If Magomedov, or his corner, watched the Pyfer tape and saw what I saw, the plan changes. The goal becomes getting Adesanya to the floor, keeping him there and making him carry weight. My guess is Adesanya’s camp spends most of October and November on getting up and staying up, because that’s the skill that has actually cost him lately.
The bigger variable might be the corner. Adesanya announced in July that he was splitting with Eugene Bareman and City Kickboxing, the gym where he started MMA at 21 alongside Dan Hooker, Kai Kara-France and Alexander Volkanovski. That means November 28 would be his first fight with a new voice between rounds.
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That matters more than people think. The Pyfer fight turned in Round 2, which means the minute after Round 1 was where an adjustment had to happen. I love fighters who make real adjustments between rounds. This time Adesanya will be taking instructions from people who haven’t spent a decade learning how he hears them. That cuts both ways. A fresh set of eyes might spot something the old room stopped noticing. It might also take a full round to figure out how to talk to each other.
He hasn’t vanished from his old life, for what it’s worth. Dovy posted a clip of Adesanya visiting Volkanovski’s farm on October 5. He also still has his needle. He told the same account that Paulo Costa had been set to face Navajo Stirling before that fell apart, and joked, “He probably said no because of flashbacks, he didn’t want to see that stance across the cage.” A guy who’s mentally done doesn’t usually take shots like that.
What it means for middleweight
The top of the division won’t be decided in Riyadh or wherever this lands. Sean Strickland holds the belt, Khamzat Chimaev sits at No. 1 in the Meta rankings, and Pyfer, now No. 4, faces Bo Nickal on December 12 at UFC 335. BetOnline opened Pyfer as a -130 favorite, and that line hasn’t moved much. Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan meet October 10 at the Meta Apex, and that result will shuffle the middle of the top 10 again.
For Adesanya, a win over an unranked opponent buys time and a clean answer to the “is he finished” chatter. It does not buy a title shot. A loss would make it five straight, and that’s a number no former champion talks his way past.
For Magomedov, the math is simple. Beat a two-time champion in a main event and you’re in the rankings without anyone needing to vote on it.
I’ll take Adesanya, narrowly, on the logic that a striker who wants this fight is walking into the one place Adesanya is still very good. If Magomedov shows up with a wrestling plan instead, ignore everything I just said and watch the first takedown attempt of Round 1 on November 28.
