Next UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, Sat, Nov 14 (Gane vs. Hokit)Results UFC Fight NightJohnny Walker def. Waldo Cortes AcostaTatiana Suarez def. Virna JandirobaElijah Smith def. Davey GrantLucas Fernando def. Billy ElekanaNina Milošević def. Priscila CachoeiraMitch Raposo def. Marcos Degli
Analysis

Amanda Nunes Picks Her Exit Date, but Kayla Harrison's Judo Stands in the Way

Nunes says she'll retire for a second time after UFC 334, and her farewell opponent is a two-time Olympic judo champion who currently holds the bantamweight belt.

Amanda Nunes
Photo: Amanda Nunes: MMAnytt, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Amanda Nunes has decided how this ends. The Sun reported that the two-division champion announced a second retirement decision just days before her UFC 334 fight with Kayla Harrison. That turns the matchup people spent years arguing about into her farewell as well. The reporting frames it as a fight-week decision, and the sources don’t lay out the terms beyond that, so I won’t either. What I can do is explain why this specific opponent is such a hard place to try to leave on top.

Two resumes that don’t overlap much

Nunes, 38, is the only woman to win UFC titles in two divisions. She’s a former featherweight champion and a two-time bantamweight champion. She’s the third fighter ever to hold UFC belts in two weight classes at once, after Conor McGregor and Daniel Cormier, and the only one to defend titles in both divisions while holding them simultaneously. She sat at No. 1 in the women’s pound-for-pound rankings in 2022.

Harrison, 36, holds the UFC bantamweight title right now. She took it in June 2025 with a second-round kimura on Julianna Peña. Before that she beat Holly Holm in her UFC debut after signing in January 2024, and before that she won the PFL lightweight tournament in 2019 and again in 2021. Her judo career is absurd: world champion at 78 kg in 2010, Olympic gold in London in 2012 and Rio in 2016, and promoted to rokudan (sixth-degree black belt) as the youngest American ever to get it. She was No. 2 pound-for-pound as of November 18, 2025.

So Nunes is the challenger in her own retirement fight, walking into a champion whose entire athletic life has been about grabbing people and putting them down.

How Nunes wins it

Nunes has a family philosophy on this. Her mother, who trained boxing and cornered Nunes’s uncle in Vale Tudo, told her “the first strike has to be yours. She can’t touch you before you touch her. You have to intimidate her.” Nunes built a career on that advice. She won five straight by knockout before she ever got to Strikeforce, then debuted there on January 7, 2011, by knocking out Julia Budd in 14 seconds.

My read is that the fight lives and dies on the entries. Harrison’s judo needs grips, and grips need distance closed. Every time Harrison steps in to tie up, there’s a beat where she’s in range of Nunes’s power before she has hold of anything. If Nunes lands first, the way her mother drilled into her, Harrison has to decide whether to keep walking forward into that.

Nunes also can’t be treated as a striker who panics on the mat. She’s a BJJ black belt and a judo brown belt. She won gold at the 2008 Pan Ams as a blue belt, gold at the 2009 Worlds as a purple belt, and NAGA titles in both the lightweight and absolute divisions in 2012. She knows where her elbows go.

How Harrison wins it

Look at how Harrison finishes people and a pattern jumps out. Armbar on Brittney Elkin in Round 1 of her MMA debut. Key lock on Morgan Frier in Round 1. Armbar on Bobbi Jo Dalziel in Round 1. Kimura on Peña in Round 2 for the UFC belt. She hunts the arms. And when she can’t finish, she smothers, which is how she beat Larissa Pacheco in the 2019 PFL final, controlling every round with her grappling.

Nunes’s history has two specific moments that line up uncomfortably with that. Her pro debut on March 8, 2008, ended in a first-round armbar loss to Ana Maria. Then on September 10, 2011, Alexis Davis stopped her late in Round 2 of a fight Nunes started with heavy shots. She faded hard, came out of the second round already exhausted, shot a takedown, got reversed immediately, and Davis climbed to full mount and finished it with strikes.

That Davis fight is 15 years old and Nunes was 23. I’m not pretending it describes the fighter she became. But the shape of that loss is exactly what Harrison wants to recreate. In my read, the danger zone is a tired Nunes who decides to wrestle. Shooting on a two-time Olympic judo champion is a bad idea at full gas tank and a worse one on fumes. The judo gap is massive, a brown belt against a sixth-degree black belt with two Olympic golds, and against the fence that gap shows up in every hip position.

One thing I’ll be watching on weigh-in day: Harrison did her PFL work at lightweight and now competes at bantamweight. The sources don’t tell me anything about how her cut has gone, so I’m not claiming a problem. I just know that a grappler built on pressure needs her lungs in Round 3, and the scale is where that starts.

The pick, and the division

I’m taking Nunes by TKO in Round 2. My read is that Harrison’s grip-fighting entries give Nunes enough clean looks early, and that Nunes, knowing it’s her last night, won’t hold anything back for the later rounds. The risk is obvious. If the first five minutes go by without damage and Harrison gets a body lock, that kimura-and-armbar résumé starts looking a lot more relevant than any highlight reel.

For the division, the stakes split cleanly. If Harrison wins, she’s beaten the woman ranked first pound-for-pound in 2022 and the only two-division women’s champion in UFC history, which is the kind of win that defines a run. If Nunes wins and follows through on retiring, my read is the bantamweight belt doesn’t stay with anyone for long, and the division resets around whoever is next in line behind two fighters who were ranked at the very top of the sport.

The Sun’s report came out on November 10. The fight is days away. Nunes has picked her ending, and the last person she has to get through to have it is the one who finished Peña with a kimura.

Keep reading