BetOnline put out its UFC 335 lines shortly after the card was revealed during the UFC 332 broadcast. Charles Oliveira opened at -172 over Diego Lopes (+146) for the BMF title, and Sergei Pavlovich opened at -130 over Alex Pereira (+111) in the five-round heavyweight co-main. Early bettors moved Pavlovich further up the board. Both fights land at T-Mobile Arena on Dec. 12, the last numbered card of 2026, and in both cases I think the books have the right side for the right reason.
Oliveira vs. Lopes: the first five minutes decide it
Oliveira is 37-11 with one no contest, he’s 36, and he owns the UFC records for submissions (17), finishes (21) and bonuses (21). Since the opening-round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria, he’s submitted Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Rio and won a unanimous decision over Max Holloway at UFC 326 in March to take the BMF belt. He’s still No. 3 at lightweight, yet he was dropped out of the pound-for-pound top 15 entirely last month in the reshuffle after UFC 331 and Tom Aspinall vacating the heavyweight title.
The most useful piece of tape study for this fight came out of Oliveira’s own mouth. Looking back on the Topuria loss, he said, “I trusted my hand,” and added, “I believed my hand was going to land, and everyone did what they’re doing now; everyone laughed. But I learned from that mistake.” That’s a fourth-degree black belt admitting he let a striker dictate where the fight happened. The Holloway fight was the correction. It was one-sided, it was not a fight anyone will rewatch for fun, and it was exactly the right fight.
Lopes (28-8) is 31 and moving to 155 for the first time after spending nearly his whole career at featherweight, with a few bantamweight fights before the UFC. His three UFC losses came against Movsar Evloev in a short-notice debut and twice against Alexander Volkanovski in title fights. In between he finished Jean Silva, and in June he stopped Steve Garcia by second-round TKO at UFC Freedom 250.
The Big Lead’s preview argues Oliveira won’t be able to hold Lopes down the way he held Holloway, so the fight will happen on the feet. I agree with the first half and disagree with the conclusion. Lopes grapples well enough to keep Oliveira from riding top position for 25 minutes, sure. But a grappler who fights his way out of bad spots creates scrambles, and scrambles are where Oliveira has made his living for 15 years. My read is that Lopes’s grappling makes this fight messier on the mat, and messy favors the guy with 17 UFC submissions.
The danger is Oliveira forgetting his own lesson. Lopes is a willing striker, the belt literally rewards chaos, and the crowd will want a firefight. If Oliveira spends Round 1 trading because it feels like the BMF thing to do, Lopes has a real shot to land something clean, which is how the Topuria fight ended. If Oliveira hunts the clinch and the takedown early, Lopes has to wrestle a natural lightweight in his first night at the weight. I’m taking Oliveira by submission before Round 3.
Pereira vs. Pavlovich: one punch, two directions
Pereira (13-4) is 39 and making only his second heavyweight start. In the first, Ciryl Gane stopped him by second-round TKO in the interim title fight at UFC Freedom 250 in June, ending his bid to become the UFC’s first three-division champion. Pereira argued illegal strikes played a role in that finish and went as far as threatening retirement over fighter safety. The Big Lead noted he could have gone back to 205 for an immediate title shot. He chose this instead, and posted a hype video with the caption “I’ll see you soon.”
Pavlovich (21-3) is 34, ranked No. 2, and has won three straight since losing the 2023 interim title fight to Aspinall and then dropping a decision to Alexander Volkov. His last outing, at UFC Macau in May, is the fight Pereira’s camp should be studying, partly because the victim was a teammate. Tallison Teixeira stands 6-foot-7 and trains with Pereira. Pavlovich touched him with a right hand, followed with an overhand that dropped him, and finished him with ground strikes at 39 seconds. It was his first knockout since he flattened Curtis Blaydes in April 2023.
That sequence is the matchup problem in miniature. Pavlovich walks forward and throws the second power shot right behind the first, so the opponent never gets a reset. My read is that Pereira’s best tools against forward pressure are his kicks, which carry knockout power and can punish a man stepping in. The catch is that kicking a heavyweight who’s committed to running you down is a gamble at any age. And Pereira is 39, coming off a stoppage, against a puncher who just did this to a guy from his own gym.
The five-round format gives Pereira a theoretical path, since Volkov proved Pavlovich can be taken the distance and beaten on the cards. I don’t think Pereira gets there. One fan on X put it more bluntly than I would: “5 rounds don’t mean anything when Sergei throws that first overhand.” I’m taking Pavlovich by knockout in the first half of the fight, and -130 looks generous before the line moves again.
The winner has an obvious next step. Gane, now the full champion after Aspinall vacated, defends against undefeated Josh Hokit at UFC 334 on Nov. 14 at Madison Square Garden. HEAVY wrote that the Gane-Hokit winner should face the UFC 335 co-main winner in 2027. After the Teixeira fight Pavlovich asked for exactly that, saying, “This is the time now,” and “Dana, give me the title shot, or at least give me a contender fight.” He got the contender fight.
The middleweight title fight that didn’t happen
The card also has Joe Pyfer (16-3) against Bo Nickal and Brandon Moreno against Charles Johnson. The fight that’s missing is Sean Strickland against Nassourdine Imavov, which had been widely expected for Dec. 12. Alex Behunin reported that “Sean Strickland was available and ready to go for UFC 335,” and that “He had zero injuries from the crash - the UFC went in a different direction, per sources.” Others on X said money was the holdup. One account claimed Strickland wanted $1 million to fight Imavov at UFC 336 on Jan. 16 against an offer of $400,000 to show and $400,000 to win. Treat those figures as unconfirmed.
Imavov took the numbers at face value and answered on X: “If it’s really about money, I’ll put $500K of my own money on the line if you beat me in January.” He also called for the UFC to strip Strickland, which is not going to happen over a contract dispute. What it does mean is that the Nov. 14 card at MSG now carries the last regular title fight of 2026, and the middleweight belt sits idle until at least Jan. 16.
