Stephen Thompson told James Lynch of Ozoon this week that his Nov. 14 fight with Charles Radtke at UFC 334 will be the last of his MMA career. It’s a featured prelim at Madison Square Garden, on a card topped by Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit and Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes. He has a baby girl born in September, he’s the oldest fighter on the roster at 43, and he picked a building he loves. You could not script a sweeter exit.
Which is why I’m selling it.
According to Heavy, Thompson is a -140 favorite and Radtke sits at +120. Strip out the vig and that line says the books think the 43-year-old wins this a little under 58% of the time. I’d love to know which version of Wonderboy that number is pricing, because the one who’s been showing up since 2023 hasn’t won a fight.
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The ledger
I’ll be straight with you about something first. There’s a popular betting-forum theory that old guys in announced farewell fights are one of the best fades on the board. I don’t have a verified, clean database to wave at you that proves it, and anybody who says they have one should show their work before you hand them your rent money. I’ve lost enough on some guy’s can’t-miss system to know the smell.
What I do have is this specific fighter’s record, and it’s ugly enough on its own.
Thompson has lost six of his last seven, per Yahoo Sports. Since the two Tyron Woodley title fights, he’s 4-7. His last win came against Kevin Holland in 2022. Then the skid: a submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 296 in December 2023, a stoppage loss to Joaquin Buckley, and a split decision loss to Gabriel Bonfim in Nashville in July 2025. Two finishes and a coin flip that went the wrong way.
Now look at the other corner. Radtke joined the UFC in 2023 and is 5-2 in the promotion with back-to-back wins coming in. That’s a guy trending up who’s been inside the Octagon more recently and more successfully than the man favored to beat him. That alone doesn’t make him a lock, but it should make you suspicious of a price that has the fading veteran laying juice.
Why the line looks like this
My guess is the money is coming from people who remember the good stuff, and there’s a lot of good stuff to remember. He beat Robert Whittaker, Rory MacDonald, Johny Hendricks, Jorge Masvidal and Vicente Luque. The UFC record book has him with eight fight night bonuses (fourth most at welterweight) and 1,293 significant strikes landed (fifth in the division). Dana White called him “one of the nicest human beings on the planet” after the Nashville card.
None of that throws a punch on Nov. 14. Nice guys in retirement fights get bet like the result is owed to them. Sentiment is a terrible handicapper, and it’s the most common way the public turns a live dog into a plus-money gift.
The best case for Wonderboy, and why I’m not buying
The strongest argument for him is real: the Bonfim fight was a split decision that plenty of fans thought he won, so he’s not some shot fighter getting folded every time out, and he says himself he still feels great.
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Here’s my problem with that. A loss that many people thought was a win is still a loss, and a near miss against Bonfim is a strange reason to lay -140 on a 43-year-old who hasn’t had his hand raised in roughly four years. Close losses tell you a fighter is competitive. They don’t tell you he’s a 58% favorite. And the two losses before Bonfim weren’t close. Rakhmonov and Buckley both finished him.
As for feeling good, Thompson told Lynch his body feels good, he feels great and he thinks he could keep going. Every fighter I’ve ever seen take a farewell fight says some version of that, and I believe they mean it. Training-camp legs and Saturday-night legs at 43 are different animals.
There’s also the matter of where his head is. He said it plainly: “I have a baby girl. Wonder dad! So, that definitely changes your mindset a little bit.” Good for him, and I mean that. He’s also already talking about RAF and Karate Combat, per Lynch. He may well be locked in for Radtke. Still, the guy is telling us his priorities shifted, and the betting public seems to be ignoring him.
The play
Radtke at +120. If you want to get cute, wait and see if late sentimental money pushes him a few cents higher closer to fight night, because farewell fights at the Garden are exactly the kind of spot where casuals pile onto the name they know. Don’t parlay it with eight favorites from the main card. Just take the plus money on the younger, hotter fighter and let everyone else bet the movie ending.
If Wonderboy lands one more side kick at MSG and walks off with his hand raised, I’ll cheer, then I’ll rip up my ticket. I’ve done worse with my money for worse reasons. UFC 334 goes down Saturday, Nov. 14, and I’ll be on the side that doesn’t need a happy ending to cash.
