Alexander Volkanovski’s head coach has a plan for Justin Gaethje, and he isn’t keeping it a secret. MMA Junkie ran it Tuesday under the headline that the coach “points to key factor in beating Justin Gaethje.” The material I’m working from doesn’t spell out what that factor is, so I won’t guess and dress it up as reporting. The more telling detail is the timing. The camp is gaming out a lightweight superfight in public three days after UFC 333.
My argument is that the strongest evidence for a Volkanovski run at 155 is what he did at 145 on Saturday while he was sick, and no whiteboard can compete with that.
What UFC 333 actually told us
Volkanovski defended his featherweight title with a second-round stoppage of Movsar Evloev, as MMA Orbit noted after the event. THE MMA GURU framed it as Volkanovski finishing “the undefeated Dagestani test of his division” at 38. That’s a fair way to describe the job. Evloev was the guy built to make an older champion’s night long and miserable, and the fight didn’t see a third round.
View post on X
Then came the medical report. Craig Jones confirmed on Instagram that Volkanovski had been fighting the flu all fight week, according to MMA Orbit. Happy Punch described it as a chest infection. Volkanovski himself was almost cheerful about it. In comments shared by Championship Rounds, he said: “It’s all good, it’s a part of the game. I started getting sick, I was like ‘it would’ve been too easy if I wasn’t sick.’” He followed that with: “No matter what hurdles are in front of me, this sh*t excites me.”
That’s very funny, and also a little alarming. I’ve watched plenty of fighters fall apart over the course of a fight week because their body had nothing left by the time the cage door shut. Volkanovski apparently showed up sick, felt sick, and still got the finish before the halfway mark. It’s the best piece of evidence anyone has that his engine and his decision-making hold up when conditions are bad. Bad conditions are exactly what you’d expect from a weight class move against a man who’s lived his whole career at lightweight.
Why the weight class matters more than the opponent
This is my bias showing. I can’t stand watching fighters gas because a cut wrecked them, and the cleanest thing a lightweight fight offers Volkanovski is one fewer variable on fight week. I’m not claiming his featherweight cuts have been a disaster, because nothing in front of me says that. My point is simpler. If he can win a title fight at 145 with a chest infection, a camp where he walks in closer to his natural weight and isn’t drained is a real advantage. That helps any game plan his coach draws up, whatever the key factor turns out to be.
View post on X
The flip side is obvious. Fighting up means fighting bigger men, and getting through a sick fight week at featherweight doesn’t automatically carry over to taking clean shots at lightweight. The coach going public with a specific factor tells me the camp knows that. You don’t point to one key factor unless you think the fight swings on one thing.
Gaethje has competition for the slot
The complication is that Gaethje may not be the fight Volkanovski wants most. Speaking to Brett Bradford in comments posted by Championship Rounds, he said a rematch with Ilia Topuria before retirement would appeal to him: “That would be great too. If it’s gonna be for a lightweight title then yea. To get that win back would be great. I’m a competitor and I’d love to test myself against him.”
Two things jump out. First, the condition is explicit. He wants a Topuria rematch if a lightweight title is on the line, so the belt is clearly the motivation as much as the opponent. Second, “that would be great too” reads like a man listing several options, and that fits with his coach breaking down Gaethje in the same news cycle. The camp has more than one name in mind. It’s building a case that Volkanovski belongs at 155 and letting the matchmakers sort out who’s across from him.
For the record, UFC 333 was a good night for the older guard generally. Volkanovski and Petr Yan posed for a photo together after both won, per Championship Rounds.
View post on X
My pick, conditionally
If the Gaethje fight gets made, I’d lean Volkanovski, and the reason is the Evloev fight more than anything his coach said Tuesday. A champion who can adjust on the fly against an unbeaten wrestler while ill has the problem-solving that wins superfights. Fighters who make real changes between rounds are the ones who survive moving up. The coach can point to whatever key factor he likes, but Volkanovski already showed us on Saturday that he can win when everything goes wrong.
The holdup is the belt. Volkanovski’s own words tie his interest to a lightweight title, and Gaethje is the name his coach is gaming out. Until the UFC decides whether a title is on the table, Topuria stays ahead of Gaethje in the queue.
