Uros Medic thinks the clock has run out on Kevin Holland’s run as a welterweight fixture, and he said so plainly to UFC.com’s E. Spencer Kyte ahead of their Saturday, Nov. 14 fight at UFC 334 inside Madison Square Garden. “Kevin had his moment. He’s had many moments,” Medic said, after explaining that his recent surge comes down to timing. “It’s just my time; it’s my time, man.”
The 170-pound bout lands on the card headlined by Gane vs. Hokit, and FanDuel has Medic as a -156 favorite with Holland back at +122. Strip out the vig and the book is giving Medic roughly a 61 percent chance. That’s a lot of faith in a guy whose first seven UFC fights produced a 4-3 record.
The last four have been a different story. Medic stopped Gilbert Urbina and Muslim Salikhov in 63 seconds apiece, flattened Geoff Neal with a left hand in Houston in February, then headlined in Belgrade on Aug. 1 and finished Daniel Rodriguez in 30 seconds. It was his first time home since leaving Serbia for school in the U.S. nine years earlier, and he called it the biggest moment of his career. The streak moved him to No. 9 in the Meta rankings and No. 12 in the media rankings. He’s now 14-3 with 12 knockouts and two submissions, he has never heard a decision read, and he’s been past the second round once.
Medic, who trains at Kings MMA in Orange County, came into the UFC off Dana White’s Contender Series as a lightweight, went 2-1 at 155 and then split his first four welterweight bouts before the run started. He told UFC.com he’s a seasoned athlete now and that opponent switches and big arenas no longer rattle him. “What is there that I haven’t seen? They cannot surprise me anymore,” he said.
Holland, 34, is about to make his 30th UFC walk and his 45th pro appearance overall. He has never been knocked out, and MMA Mania’s preview credits him with a 10-inch reach advantage plus improved defensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu. The same preview also points out he’s been rocked more often lately, including by Rodriguez and Mike Malott. MMA Mania picked Holland by submission, figuring Medic either shows new composure or overcommits and gets countered.
My take: this is a classic irresistible force against an immovable object, and the price reflects only one half of that sentence. Medic has finished every win he’s ever had and Holland has never been finished by strikes in 45 fights, so somebody’s perfect stat is going to die Saturday. The book is betting it’s Holland’s chin. I’m not so sure. Medic’s entire recent résumé fits inside about five minutes of total cage time, which tells you nothing about what he looks like in the third round against a guy with a 10-inch reach edge who can wrestle and pull a submission off a scramble. Fighters who have never been past the second round are the ones I want to fade at short odds, not back. Holland at +122 is live, and that’s where my money’s going, with the usual warning that my track record on Holland fights would get me fired from most honest professions.”
