Tom Nolan headlines a UFC card for the first time this Saturday, Oct. 31, when he meets Renato Moicano in a lightweight main event at Meta Apex in Las Vegas. UFC Vegas 123, also billed as UFC Fight Night 292, streams on Paramount+ in the U.S., and the UFC’s account on X lists the main card at 8 p.m. ET.
The promotion leaned hard into Nolan’s origin story on X, pointing out that he went from Dana White’s Contender Series to a headlining slot. The Australian, who goes by “Big Train,” is 11-1 overall and 5-1 in the UFC. Bloody Elbow noted he’s chasing a sixth straight win, and this would be the biggest name on that run by a distance.
Moicano is the opposite file. He’s 21-7-1 overall and 13-7 inside the Octagon, and he’s a former lightweight title challenger. Count it up and he’s fought 20 times in the UFC. Nolan has six. MMA Mania’s preview called the headliner a solid test for a rising contender, which is about as fair a one-line summary as you’ll find.
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The card lands a week after UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi, where Alexander Volkanovski knocked out Movsar Evloev to keep the featherweight title. MMA Mania openly told readers to lower expectations after that one. Rough, but not wrong about the depth here.
The lineup has also taken some hits. Bloody Elbow reported that Azamat Bekoev withdrew from his bout with Andre Petroski after suffering an anaphylactic reaction and passing out in a CVS. Several other fights fell off in recent weeks and replacements stepped in.
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Here’s how the rest of the main card shakes out, with lines from MMA Mania’s breakdown:
- Welterweight: Jacobe Smith (-220), unbeaten at 12-0 with four UFC wins, against Randy Brown (+185), who has dropped two straight. The fight came together on short notice.
- Bantamweight: Luana Santos (-235) against Yana Santos (+180). Both have won three in a row, and MMA Mania pointed out that Luana is a decade younger.
- Flyweight: Ode Osbourne (-130) against Cody Durden (-102). Osbourne is winless in his last two, and Durden lost his last outing.
- Lightweight: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani against Farman Hasanov.
On the prelims, Zach Reese (-270) meets Mickey Gall (+250). Reese has lost two straight. Gall has lost four straight and is moving up to middleweight.
Nolan, Moicano and several others on the card were scheduled for media day on Wednesday, with MMA Junkie running a live stream.
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My quick take: the five straight wins don’t need a story attached. They’re the data, and they’re why Nolan is in this spot. Moicano’s 13-7 UFC record cuts both ways, since seven losses means he’s beatable and 20 fights means he’s seen just about every look a lightweight can throw at him. A guy in his first main event, against a man who has already fought for a belt, has to show me he can handle the extra rounds before I trust him at a short number. And that flyweight fight at -130 and -102, between two guys MMA Mania called the least trustworthy flyweights on the roster? That’s the sportsbook shrugging. I’ll be shrugging right along with it, wallet closed, Saturday night.
