Kamaru Usman thinks the welterweight title picture is going exactly the way it should. I think he’s right about the fight and wrong about the calendar, and the gap between those two things is where a champion’s goodwill quietly leaks out.
Here’s what happened, per Bloody Elbow. Islam Makhachev is only a couple of months past his close win over Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330, and he was expected to defend the belt again in January. Instead he turned down Carlos Prates for UFC 336 in Toronto and ruled out a return until May 2027 at the earliest. His reasoning is that he wants Prates or Michael Morales to prove they deserve the shot first. So those two get pointed at each other, and the champ gets a long spring.
Usman, talking on his Pound 4 Pound podcast with Henry Cejudo, signed off on the whole arrangement.
“I think these guys are well on the way, but I feel like they just need maybe one more. One more against a top guy that still has big clout,” Usman said. “I think this is a phenomenal matchup.”
The part Usman gets right
Prates vs. Morales is a better fight than Makhachev vs. either of them would have been in January. I’ll say that with my chest. Two contenders who both think they’re the heir, nobody holding the rope for them, and a winner who comes out with real equity instead of a press release saying he earned it. Usman framed it as a tryout for the throne: “Either guy wins this here, they are A-tier to potentially succeed if Islam Makhachev loses the belt or gives up the belt.”
He also made the promotional case, and it’s sharper than it sounds. His argument boiled down to this: if you’re going to retire a draw like Makhachev, you need someone who can headline a numbered event and pack the building. He put it bluntly about his own era, too, saying that to replace a staple like him “you’ve gotta be able to put in someone like Islam.” That’s a former champ being honest about the gap between a top contender and a guy who sells tickets. One more big win closes some of that gap.
From where I sit, a fight between two hungry contenders with no clear favorite in the public’s head is a much more interesting card to handicap than a dominant champion against a challenger everybody’s already decided about. I’d rather sort out a near coin flip than lay heavy juice on a champ coming off a close fight. That’s just me.
The part he skips
Usman says it’s playing out as it should. Then look at the calendar. Makhachev’s last outing against Machado Garry was close. Not a wipeout, not a statement. And off that, he’s choosing a layoff that pushes him to May 2027 at minimum, while the contenders fight each other for an interim belt.
I’ve been burned enough times by fighters returning from long breaks at short prices to get twitchy about this. A champion who sits while the challengers stay busy is building a sharper opponent for himself. Whoever wins Prates vs. Morales will have fought more recently, under more pressure, with a belt of some kind on the line. Makhachev will have had a vacation and a lot of film. I know which side of that I’d lean toward when the number comes out.
There’s also the matter of who’s doing the endorsing. Before the Machado Garry fight, Makhachev was campaigning to fight Usman. That didn’t happen, and Usman went back up to middleweight to face Dricus du Plessis. But Bloody Elbow notes Usman still has an eye on his old division. I’m not saying his opinion is bought and paid for. I’m saying a former welterweight king who still eyes the division probably doesn’t mind the current king staying put and the throne staying warm. Weigh his take accordingly.
And the stripping talk isn’t going away. Bloody Elbow has already run a headline about calls to take Makhachev’s belt, alongside a 30-fight UFC vet arguing he earned the right to delay. Both of those can be true at once. A guy can earn some patience and still burn it.
Prates isn’t taking it quietly
The person with the most reason to be annoyed is Prates, and he is. Most people thought he’d already earned the shot. Now he has to get through Morales first, and he responded by vowing to win the interim title against Morales in about three months, then retire Makhachev.
That’s the best thing to come out of this whole mess. A contender with a grudge, a fight with an actual belt attached, and a champion who’s now on record saying the winner has to prove himself. If Prates or Morales walks out of that one looking great, Makhachev’s May return stops being a defense on his terms and starts looking like a fight he’s been dodging for six months, fair or not.
Usman called the matchup phenomenal, and on that point he’s dead right. Just don’t call the calendar phenomenal too. Prates and Morales go first, roughly three months out, and the clock on Makhachev starts the second that interim belt gets wrapped around somebody’s waist.
