I’ve spent years telling people that the fastest way to look stupid in combat sports is to bet against Deontay Wilder’s right hand. Johnny Nelson just did it anyway, out loud, with his name attached. And I can’t shake the feeling he might be onto something.
Nelson backed Jake Paul to beat Wilder, a pick talkSPORT described as an “astonishing prediction” that arrived after a fight offer. Kashmir Sports Watch and Geo Super both ran the same story on Monday. Kashmir Sports Watch added the part that should make Wilder’s camp grind their teeth: Nelson questioned the former champion’s punching power.
That detail is the whole ballgame. You don’t need a scouting report thicker than a phone book to understand what Wilder sells. He sells the end of the night. The footwork, the jab and the defense were never what put people in seats. The pitch was always that one clean shot changes everything, so you’d better not blink. Strip that away and what’s left is a big man asking the crowd to trust a version of himself they may not recognize anymore.
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So when a respected boxing voice looks at that matchup and says the power is the question mark, he’s taking out the load-bearing wall. Nelson didn’t pick Paul because Paul is suddenly a better boxer than a former world champion. He picked Paul because he doubts the one weapon that made Wilder dangerous to everybody.
Jake Paul is the center of gravity right now
Whatever you think of Paul, and I’ve thought plenty, look at the last week. He’s the name everybody keeps reaching for.
Sean Strickland, the UFC middleweight champion, is in a full-blown pay war with the promotion. MMA Fighting reported that on October 7 Strickland wrote on X that he was “Contemplating just going to 205, knocking out my contract and scrapping with Jake Paul,” then added, “That sounds fun.” Two days later he posted, “I will not fight or sign any contract until I get this figured out.” A reigning UFC champion with wins over Anthony Hernandez and Khamzat Chimaev is floating Jake Paul as his escape hatch. That tells you who holds the leverage in crossover land.
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Paulo Costa jumped in too. Responding to a HappyPunch clip of Paul hitting a heavy bag with a massive snake wrapped around it (yes, really), Costa wrote on X that he sparred Logan Paul five years ago and “it wasn’t a real fight,” then asked whether Jake is better than his brother. Spinnin Backfist summed up the snake situation with two words: “Why though?” Fair question. I don’t have an answer. I do know nobody posts Deontay Wilder training clips to start that kind of argument this week.
Paul also put on the promoter hat. Most Valuable Promotions posted on X that after Lucas Bahdi and Floyd Schofield went to war, Paul praised the heart from both men and said he wants the rematch down the line. Running a company, fielding callouts from UFC champions and getting a former champ’s name attached to a fight offer means the guy is operating from the high ground.
Why Nelson’s pick makes sense to me
Momentum matters more in these crossover fights than purists want to admit. The guy who walks in confident, prepared and clearly wanting the fight usually looks better than the guy collecting a check and hoping his old reputation shows up. Nelson questioning Wilder’s power is basically a bet on which of those two men arrives on fight night.
Wilder at his best walks through this fight. That version of Wilder is the scariest one-punch heavyweight of his generation and Paul has no business in there. Nelson’s argument is that this version may not be the one who signs. If the power is fading, Wilder becomes a tall, aging target who has to win rounds, and winning rounds was never the brand.
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I’m an easy mark for this kind of fight. I love big-money crossovers, I love a villain and I love a guy calling his shot. Paul checks every box. The part of me that has watched Wilder flatten people for a decade is screaming that you never count out that right hand, and I’m listening to that voice too. But Nelson is a former champion making a call that could look awful, and he made it anyway. I respect that a lot more than the pundits who hedge everything into mush.
My pick, if this happens? I’d still take Wilder by knockout, because I’ve seen too many people declare that punch dead. I’d take it at shorter odds than I ever expected, though, and that’s the shift Nelson just forced into the conversation. Wilder’s power used to be the one settled question in boxing, and Nelson has reopened it.
