Alexander Volkanovski told MMA Junkie before UFC 333 that he would put Movsar Evloev away inside two rounds. Evloev walked into the cage in Abu Dhabi on Saturday without a loss on his record, had never been stopped, and the prediction sounded like the kind of thing a 38-year-old says to sell a pay-per-view. Then Volkanovski went out and did exactly what he said. I’ve spent 30 years being wrong about fighters who call their shots, and usually the guy calling it is the one who ends up wrong. Not this time.
The numbers coming out of that night are absurd. Volkanovski is now 29-4 overall and 16-3 in the UFC. He broke his tie with Jose Aldo and owns the record for UFC featherweight title fight wins outright with nine. He has defended the belt twice in his second reign, which Aldo never did once. In 15 UFC appearances at 145 pounds he has one blemish, the loss to Ilia Topuria, and that came a few months after Islam Makhachev knocked him out. You can argue he took the Topuria fight too soon. You can’t argue with 14 other trips to the featherweight well.
Dana White sounded like a man signing a blank check at the post-fight press conference. “I think when you’ve accomplished what he has accomplished, there’s not much we’re going to say no to with him,” White said. “So, we’ll see how this whole thing plays out.”
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Read that again and circle the word much. A blank check with fine print is still fine print.
The Gaethje ask
Volkanovski knows what he wants. He pitched a double retirement fight with Justin Gaethje (28-5, 11-5 UFC) for the lightweight title before UFC 333 and doubled down on it afterward, pitching it as a super fight and laying out a plan so neither division gets frozen while it happens.
I get the appeal. Two veterans, one last big night, a belt on the line. It’s a lovely story, and I’ve lost more money on lovely stories than I’d like to admit. Matchmaking built on how something would look in a documentary is how you end up with a 12-leg parlay of favorites and a long drive home.
The problems stack up fast. Nobody knows yet whether Gaethje is actually retiring. Nobody knows if he wants Volkanovski at all, or whether he’d rather fight Arman Tsarukyan. Mike Bohn wrote for MMA Junkie that the clock is ticking on Gaethje to make a call and the UFC will only extend him so much grace. Then there’s Tsarukyan himself, who keeps getting passed over. His scuffle with Dillon Danis at RAF 14 may have given the UFC pause again, and Bohn’s take was that it shouldn’t, and that every sane person should agree Tsarukyan has earned his shot. I’m with him. Putting a featherweight champion into a lightweight title fight means Tsarukyan waits one more time, and the UFC has made him wait plenty.
The fight that makes sense
The realistic option was sitting cageside. Jean Silva (18-3, 7-1 UFC) was in Abu Dhabi watching, and Bohn described him as having hope in his eyes about getting the next crack at the belt. Silva is 29. Volkanovski is 38. That nine-year gap is the most interesting number on the board, because it cuts both ways. Volkanovski just proved that age hasn’t slowed him down against an undefeated contender. Silva is the kind of dangerous, hungry challenger who tests whether that holds up for another five rounds.
This is the fight I’d want to handicap. One loss in eight UFC fights is a real resume, and a younger contender against a champion who keeps doing impossible things is where live underdogs come from. I’ll want to see where the opening line lands before I say anything louder than that, but I already know I’d rather study that number than a sentimental lightweight booking.
It also keeps the featherweight division honest. The champion defends against the guy who’s next in line, Tsarukyan gets his lightweight title shot, and Gaethje gets to decide his future on his own timeline. Nobody cuts the line.
Bohn raised a fair point that Silva might be the fight offered, and maybe the one fight the UFC won’t say no to. White said there’s not much they’d refuse. He did not say nothing. If the Gaethje request turns out to be too lofty, it wouldn’t be surprising if Volkanovski took a hard look at retirement, and after stopping an unbeaten Evloev on schedule at 38, nobody could fault him.
Volkanovski seems at peace with either outcome. My pick for Sean Shelby is simple. Book Silva for the featherweight title, give Tsarukyan the lightweight belt fight he’s been owed, and let Gaethje’s clock run out by itself.
