Justin Gaethje holds the UFC lightweight title and hasn’t said a word about what he does with it. Since he upset Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 and stopped him to take the belt, Gaethje (28-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC) has mulled over retirement and said he plans to take a break before fighting again, if he fights again at all. That leaves two offers sitting on his kitchen table.
The first is Arman Tsarukyan (24-3 MMA, 11-2 UFC), the clear No. 1 contender at 155 pounds. The second is featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski (29-4 MMA, 16-3 UFC), who has said he’d be interested in a double retirement fight with Gaethje. One is the fight the division owes the champion. The other is a send-off between two men who have each held gold.
Former champion Chris Weidman thinks he knows which one Gaethje picks, and I think he’s right.
View post on X
Weidman’s case for Tsarukyan
Speaking on “Deep Waters,” in comments picked up by MMA Junkie, Weidman argued that Gaethje’s competitive streak pushes him toward the harder assignment. His logic is simple. Gaethje could lose to Volkanovski, but in Weidman’s words, “the cards are stacked against him with Arman.” He pegged Gaethje as roughly a 3-1 underdog in that matchup and said the champion “loves the opportunity to shut people up.”
That read fits what we just watched. Gaethje walked into the Topuria fight as the guy who was supposed to hand over a belt, and he walked out holding it. A fighter who just cashed that kind of ticket doesn’t usually go looking for the safer bet next. Being told you’re a heavy underdog again, a few months after proving the odds wrong, is about the most effective motivational tool you could hand him.
Weidman also put the fear question to bed. “I don’t think Gaethje is afraid of losing,” he said, which tracks for a man openly talking about retirement. When you’re already thinking about the exit, a loss costs you less than it would a 26-year-old trying to build a run. The downside of the Tsarukyan fight shrinks. The upside, beating the No. 1 contender as a big underdog, gets enormous.
Follow the money
The part of Weidman’s argument I find most persuasive is the boring part. He said Gaethje “wants to get paid the right amount of money,” suggested that’s why everyone is still waiting on an announcement, and added: “I think he would get paid more money to fight Arman than he would Volkanovski.”
That’s Weidman’s opinion, and he didn’t offer numbers to back it. But it makes structural sense. A mandatory title defense against the top contender is the fight the promotion has every reason to pay for, because it keeps the lightweight division moving. A champion-versus-champion farewell is a fun idea that solves nobody’s logjam. If the bigger check and the bigger challenge point the same direction, the decision gets easy.
The honest case for Volkanovski
I’ll give Volkanovski his due, because the resume gap is real. Sixteen UFC wins against three losses is a stronger body of work than Tsarukyan’s 11-2, and on paper it’s more credentialed than Gaethje’s 11-5 inside the Octagon. If you’re grading opponents purely on accomplishment, Volk wins the argument.
The “double retirement” framing is also clever. It gives two veterans a dignified final night, it’s built on mutual respect, and it carries the champion-versus-champion label that sells itself. If Gaethje’s priority is a graceful goodbye rather than a defense, that’s the fight that fits.
The trouble is that a goodbye requires Gaethje to want one, and the only signal he’s sent is that he wants time. He hasn’t responded to Volkanovski’s callout. He hasn’t committed to retiring. A fighter fully set on walking away probably doesn’t need a break to think it over.
My pick
Tsarukyan is the fight, and it should be. A champion who just won the belt as an underdog, sitting across from a No. 1 contender who’s favored to beat him, with what Weidman believes is a bigger payday attached, has every reason to say yes. The Volkanovski fight is the one you take when you’re done proving things. Gaethje just proved something huge in the Topuria fight, and if Weidman’s read on his personality holds, he’ll want to do it again before he decides he’s finished.
The longer he stays quiet, the more this looks like a negotiation. Weidman said as much: the waiting is about the money. When Gaethje finally speaks, I expect the first name out of his mouth to be Tsarukyan’s, and I expect the champion to be the underdog in his own title defense.
