Oddsmakers don’t think Alex Pereira is a heavyweight yet. BetOnline opened Sergei Pavlovich as a -130 favorite over Pereira for their five-round co-main event at UFC 335, with Poatan sitting at +111. MMA Fighting reported that public money came in on the Russian almost immediately, pushing him to -164. That moves his implied win probability from 56.5 percent to 62 percent.
Pereira isn’t the only big name catching plus money. Sherdog pointed out on X that Pereira, Diego Lopes and Bo Nickal all opened as underdogs for the Dec. 12 card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, which is the last numbered UFC event of 2026.
Dana White and the UFC announced the three fights during Saturday’s UFC 332 broadcast. Pereira posted a promo video shortly afterward with a brief message telling fans he’d see them soon.
Where the Pereira line comes from
Pereira (13-4) is coming off a loss to Ciryl Gane in his UFC heavyweight debut at UFC Freedom 250, the interim heavyweight title fight held on the South Lawn of the White House on June 14. ESPN described this booking as his attempt to rebound from that defeat. Pavlovich (21-3) has 16 knockout wins and 16 first-round finishes, according to Athlon Sports, and he lands 4.49 significant strikes per minute. Pereira lands 5.01 and absorbs 3.72. He has 11 career knockouts, eight of them in the UFC.
The rest of the board
In the main event, Charles Oliveira defends the BMF title against Lopes, who is moving up to lightweight. Oliveira opened at -172 with Lopes at +146. That one has moved in the other direction, and the former lightweight champion was bet down to -148 with Lopes at +126. Oliveira won the belt by dominating Max Holloway over five rounds at UFC 326 and is on a two-fight win streak. Lopes, a two-time featherweight title challenger, knocked out Steve Garcia at UFC Freedom 250 after his second loss to Alexander Volkanovski. Oliveira has 22 career submission wins. Lopes absorbs 4.65 significant strikes per minute, which is a lot of chin to put in front of anybody, let alone a guy this dangerous in transitions.
At middleweight, Joe Pyfer opened at -130 over Nickal at +111, and MMA Fighting said that line has barely moved. Pyfer (16-3) is on a four-fight win streak capped by a knockout of former champion Israel Adesanya in March. Nickal, a three-time NCAA champion, has won two straight, most recently stopping Kyle Daukaus at 4:34 of Round 1 at UFC Freedom 250.
Sal’s take
The public is betting the last fight they saw. Pereira lost to Gane, so everybody wants Pavlovich, and the book is happy to oblige at -164. Here’s what that price ignores. Every one of Pavlovich’s 16 first-round finishes is an argument that he wins early, and this fight is scheduled for 25 minutes. Pereira manages range with calf kicks, feints and a jab, which is exactly the toolkit that drags a pressure fighter into rounds where his pressure costs him something. I’d want to see a heavyweight beat Pereira after Round 1 before I lay real juice on it. Each tick the public pushes toward the Russian makes Poatan a better bet, and I’ll be watching to see how far it drifts before Dec. 12. The Lopes move toward +126 tells me the sharper money already got its piece of the main event.
