The books have hung their numbers for UFC 333, and the previews landed in a pile Friday ahead of Saturday’s card in Abu Dhabi. Action Network posted lines for both title fights, Volkanovski vs. Evloev and the Yan vs. Dvalishvili trilogy. CBS Sports ran expert picks and odds, FanDuel published best bets for the full card, and Drew Beaupre of MMA Knockout went through all nine prelims one at a time in a piece carried by USA TODAY Sports and Yahoo.
The main event is the one people have been yelling about for years. Movsar Evloev, undefeated at featherweight and billed by the UFC on X as the “Number 1 contender,” finally gets a crack at a UFC belt against reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski. Not everybody is warm on the challenger. Among the linked reads on Yahoo was a story headlined “UFC Hall of Famer Argues Promotion Should Cut UFC 333 Headliner Movsar Evloev,” which is a bold thing to say about a guy who has never lost. talkSPORT came at it from the matchup side, arguing that a fearless Volkanovski is the worst possible style for Evloev.
The co-main is round three between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili. Yan took the bantamweight title from Dvalishvili at UFC 323 last year, and another headline making the rounds says Dvalishvili revealed a shocking weight gain hours after weigh-ins. Add that to the pile of things bettors will overreact to.
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The Prelim Picks
Beaupre took Azamat Murzakanov over Dominick Reyes despite a big height and reach disadvantage, figuring Murzakanov eventually closes distance and finds the chin. He likes undefeated Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev to finish Nikita Krylov, who needs a bounce-back win, and Cam Rowston to tire out Abus Magomedov if the fight stays standing. Grant Dawson gets a slight lean over Nurullo Aliev, with Beaupre noting Dawson has only lost to fighters who knocked him out early.
On the early prelims, he has Asaf Chopurov over Colby Thicknesse, who rebounded after a rough debut against Aleksandre Topuria. Abubakar Vagaev is his pick to stall Jacob Malkoun’s three-fight win streak. Daniel Santos over Bolaji Oki would leave Oki on a three-fight skid. Kody Steele is the pick over Noah Gugnon, who won his UFC debut a couple of months ago, and Iasmin Lucindo gets the nod over Nicolle Caliari, who missed weight by a massive margin.
The card streams on Paramount+ starting at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 24.
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My take: the Hall of Famer stuff is pure noise, and noise is exactly what moves casual money the wrong way. An undefeated No. 1 contender getting his first title shot against the champ is a betting puzzle you solve with styles and cardio, and talkSPORT is at least arguing on that turf. On the prelims, Gugnon is the name I’m circling. A guy who just won his debut, getting picked against because of a grappling matchup, is my kind of live dog if the number is long enough. And if your Saturday plan is a nine-leg parlay of every Beaupre pick, please mail me the slip so I can frame it next to mine.
