Alexander Volkanovski has plenty on his plate this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. He makes the second defense of his second featherweight reign against undefeated Russian Movsar Evloev in the UFC 333 main event. He still found time to call the co-main, Petr Yan defending the bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in the trilogy, and you could practically hear him wincing through the microphone.
Volkanovski told Setanta Sports he’s going with Yan. Here’s how he got there: “going from that last fight, I feel like I have to lean towards Petr Yan, which is hard for me to say that to you guys, and I love Merab so I don’t like to say that.” Then, a beat later, he committed: “So I’m gonna have to say Petr Yan.”
He has every reason to squirm. Earlier this week he put out a YouTube video of himself and Merab attempting to make burgers. His connection to Yan goes back to their time training at Bang Tao in Thailand, and he described himself as “very very good friends with Petr Yan.” Picking between those two is like being asked which of your kids can’t cook.
I don’t think Volk’s pick is crazy. My argument is that the reasoning he gave is the exact reasoning the market is using, and it leans way too hard on one fight. That leaves the Georgian sitting there as a live dog.
The rematch is the whole case for Yan
I’ll give the Yan side its due. Bloody Elbow notes that Dvalishvili’s game plan fell apart last year, and Merab himself said he knew he was going to lose in Round 2 once the wrestling wasn’t working. When a guy whose entire identity is relentless takedowns admits he felt the fight slipping that early, you take it seriously. That performance is the reason Merab walks in as the underdog.
Notice what Volkanovski’s breakdown actually rests on, though. “Going from that last fight.” One result. He also brought up the 2023 fight on his own, saying Merab “just looked incredible” in it, and then he more or less set it aside.
The 2023 numbers are stranger than you remember
In their first meeting, Dvalishvili landed 11 of his 49 takedown attempts over five rounds. That’s about 22 percent. He finished with a little over six minutes of control time out of a possible 25, so he spent roughly a quarter of the fight on top. And it was still a rout.
That’s the data point people skip. Merab didn’t beat Yan by holding him down. He beat him by shooting nearly 10 times a round and never letting the man set his feet. The misses were part of the plan, because every one of them cost Yan something. A low success rate that still wins every round is a style that doesn’t need to go right very often.
So the question going into Saturday is which version of the matchup is the real one. Is it the fight where volume broke Yan, or the fight where Yan solved it? The betting line says the rematch. One fight against one fight, and the price treats the more recent one like gospel.
Volk’s throwaway line deserves more attention
The most interesting thing Volkanovski said got buried in the middle of his answer: “Merab was very active, too active, maybe that played a factor.”
He didn’t spell out what he meant, and I’m not going to put words in his mouth. But think about where that leads. If Volkanovski, who has watched both guys up close, suspects something around Merab’s workload contributed to the rematch going sideways, then that rematch looks less like a final verdict and more like a result with an asterisk. Asterisks are where underdog value comes from. I’ve lost plenty of money ignoring asterisks, usually on short favorites that the whole internet agreed on.
None of this means Merab wins. Yan’s path is obvious: do what he did last year, stuff the early shots, and make Merab feel it in Round 2 again. Merab’s path is just as clear, and he’s already walked it once. He needs to get back to that 49-attempt pace and make Yan defend for 25 minutes. A favorite and an underdog who have each beaten the other badly is about as live as a dog gets, and at plus money I’ll take the guy whose winning formula has a five-round sample behind it.
And there’s a featherweight wrinkle hanging over all of this. Yan has said he’s interested in moving up to 145, but that it depends on who wins the main event, because he doesn’t want to fight Volkanovski. A loss to Merab would make that conversation a lot quieter.
Volkanovski said he’s happy the fight is on his card because he gets to watch it before he walks out against Evloev. On Saturday, October 24, he’ll have the best seat in Abu Dhabi to find out whether his head or his burger buddy was right.
