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Volkanovski Faces a 20-0 Problem and the Oddsmakers Can't Pick a Winner

Movsar Evloev and Alexander Volkanovski sit at -110 apiece for Saturday's UFC 333 main event in Abu Dhabi, with the Yan vs. Dvalishvili trilogy right behind them on Paramount+.

Two UFC championship belts resting on an empty octagon canvas under arena work lights

UFC 333 lands in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, Oct. 24, with two belts on the line. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski defends against unbeaten Movsar Evloev in the main event, and Petr Yan puts the bantamweight title up against Merab Dvalishvili in the third fight of their rivalry. The main card streams on Paramount+ at 2 p.m. ET, the UFC confirmed on X, announcing “IT’S FINALLY #UFC333 FIGHT WEEK.” The prelims start earlier on Paramount+ at 10 a.m. ET, according to MMA Junkie, which said more broadcast details would come later in the week. ESPN has also put out a viewing guide for fans in the UK.

The betting market has no strong opinion on the headliner. Volkanovski and Evloev are both listed at -110, per MMA Junkie’s odds.

Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Volkanovski (28-4 MMA, 15-3 UFC) has had a strange, stubborn run back to the top. He lost the 145-pound title to Ilia Topuria, watched Topuria defend it once and then vacate to chase lightweight, and reclaimed the vacant belt by beating Diego Lopes at UFC 314 in April 2025. Lopes earned a rematch by knocking out Jean Silva, and Volkanovski beat him again at UFC 325 in January. His résumé also includes three wins over Max Holloway and victories over Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, Chan Sung Jung, Yair Rodriguez and Chad Mendes. MMA Junkie raised the possibility that this could be his final title defense, noting he has been talking as if retirement is on his mind.

Evloev (20-0 MMA, 10-0 UFC) is 32 and has won all 10 of his UFC fights on the scorecards. His last stoppage came more than eight years ago, in the fifth round of an M-1 Challenge title defense. The names on his record are serious ones: Lerone Murphy, Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes and Dan Ige.

Yan vs. Dvalishvili 3

When Dvalishvili (21-5 MMA, 14-3 UFC) swept the scorecards against Yan in March 2023, it dropped Yan to three straight losses and four in five fights, including two title losses to Sterling. Yan (20-5 MMA, 12-4 UFC) answered with three consecutive wins and then took the belt back last December, two months after Dvalishvili had dominated Cory Sandhagen. That December fight was Dvalishvili’s attempt at a fourth title defense in one calendar year. Yan was a heavy underdog that night. This time he’s the favorite at -170, with Dvalishvili at +143.

The rest of the main card has Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov, Rizvan Kuniev vs. Alexander Volkov, and Losene Keita vs. Aaron Pico, and all three are priced close to even. The prelims open with Nicolle Caliari vs. Iasmin Lucindo and build to Azamat Murzakanov (-240) against Dominick Reyes. In between are Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston, Nurullo Aliev vs. Grant Dawson, Asaf Chopurov vs. Colby Thicknesse, Jacob Malkoun vs. Abubakar Vagaev, Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos, and Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele.

A pick’em line feels right to me, and I’d go a step further. Evloev hasn’t needed a finish in eight years because nobody has made him look for one. Ten straight UFC decisions against that level of opposition comes from a fighter who wins every exchange that matters for 15 or 25 minutes. Volkanovski is the one opponent on that list who can match him minute for minute, and he has spent two fights proving he still can against Lopes. If Volkanovski wants to leave on his own terms, he’ll have to take rounds from a man who has never given them away.

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