Alexander Volkanovski has a title defense against Movsar Evloev on Saturday, October 24, and he’s already got one eye on Justin Gaethje. Boxingnews.com ran the story under a headline saying Volkanovski called out Gaethje for a superfight, and MMA Sucka went a step further, framing him as on the cusp of a 155-pound title shot. That’s a lot of runway for a man who still has to win the main event of UFC 333 first.
Here’s my position. Gaethje is the right fight for Volkanovski after Saturday, and talking about it this week is perfectly sensible promotion. But anybody treating Evloev as a speed bump on the way to lightweight is ignoring what the money says. Championship Rounds pointed out on X that Polymarket had the fight sitting at 50-50, and a champion at even money is a champion in a real fight.
What a Coin Flip Actually Tells You
Prediction markets usually hand the belt holder at least a small lean. Familiarity with five-round title fights, the cage time, the simple fact that he’s the one people have watched win before. When the number lands on a pure coin flip, it means the people putting money down can’t separate the two men, and that should change how we read every Gaethje headline this week. A superfight callout from a champion who’s a heavy favorite is a forecast. A callout from a champion at even money is a bet on himself.
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I don’t mind that, for the record. Fighters who talk about the next fight before the current one get accused of overlooking opponents, and sometimes it’s true. Other times it’s a guy who knows exactly what Saturday looks like and wants the matchmakers to hear his pitch while the cameras are pointed at him. UFC Brasil posted a clip on October 19 framing it as Volkanovski putting his cards on the table for the challenger, so he hasn’t been shy about addressing Evloev directly either.
What I’ll be watching is simple, and it starts in Round 1. Who’s choosing where the exchanges happen? Over five rounds, the fighter who sets the location of the fight (range, clinch, mat) tends to bank the rounds that the judges actually reward, and in an even matchup those early minutes decide whose game plan survives to the championship rounds. If Volkanovski is dictating by the midpoint of Round 2, the Gaethje conversation gets very loud on Sunday. If he’s reacting, the market had it right.
Why Gaethje Is the Right Ask
Assuming he wins, the 155 pitch makes sense for reasons anyone can grasp in about four seconds. A featherweight champion moving up for a superfight against Gaethje is a fight that sells itself, it gives Volkanovski a fresh challenge outside his division, and it hands the UFC an easy poster. MMA Sucka’s framing suggests the title-shot angle is already being taken seriously in at least some corners, though nothing in what’s been reported points to a signed deal or an official plan from the promotion. Right now it’s a callout and a headline, and that’s all it is.
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The risk is obvious. A loss Saturday doesn’t just cost him the belt, it vaporizes the leverage that makes a lightweight superfight possible in the first place. Champions get to ask for things. Former champions coming off a loss get offered things, which is a much worse negotiating position.
The Busy Schedule Off Camera
Volkanovski’s attention is clearly spread across a few projects. Spinnin Backfist reported he’s headed to Dagestan soon to film an episode of Cooking With Volk with Islam Makhachev, and he sounded thrilled about it: “We want to do a whole hunting on horseback, catch stuff, cook over a fire....you can just imagine how good that content will be.”
That’s a postfight trip, and I’m not going to pretend a cooking show is a red flag for a title defense. The more interesting clip, if you want a read on his preparation, came from Championship Rounds, which shared footage from Volkanovski’s own account of a teammate passing out from exhaustion during one of their challenges. Volkanovski’s reaction was about what you’d expect: “Did he pass out? F*ck man, that was an absolute war.” Whatever that challenge was, the room around him is working hard enough to drop people, which tells me more about his readiness than any amount of Gaethje talk.
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The rest of the card in Abu Dhabi includes Daniel Santos, Iasmin Lucindo and Nicolle Caliari, per UFC Brasil, with the main card starting at 11 a.m. Brasília time on Saturday. But nobody will remember the undercard if the main event produces either a new champion or a Gaethje callout delivered with the belt still on his shoulder.
My pick is Volkanovski by decision, and I’ll take the champion at even money every day of the week. If I’m right, his Gaethje pitch becomes the first real matchmaking question of the weekend. If I’m wrong, MMA Sucka’s “cusp of a 155 title shot” headline will be the most expensive four days of hype in recent memory.
