Usman Nurmagomedov can’t even pick up the phone when the UFC calls. He’s still stuck in an exclusive negotiating window with the PFL, so Dana White’s company isn’t allowed to approach him yet. That hasn’t stopped him from trying to book his own path to the lightweight title from the outside, and his latest pitch comes with a shot at the most bankable man at 155.
Speaking with Kamil Gadzhiev, as Bloody Elbow reported, Nurmagomedov argued that Ilia Topuria vs. Arman Tsarukyan hasn’t happened because the UFC doesn’t believe Topuria wins it.
“If Topuria were a real option, they (UFC) would’ve matched them up a long time ago. If they gave him just a 30 percent chance of beating Arman they would do it,” he said.
Then he added the line that gives his whole theory away: “Topuria is a cash cow.”
He’s right about the pattern. I think he’s wrong about the reason, and his own quote tells you why.
The booking record backs him up
Start with what the UFC has actually done. When the lightweight title went vacant in 2025, Topuria got Charles Oliveira for it. Later, while Topuria was away, the promotion needed an interim fight and picked Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Tsarukyan, the guy everybody keeps calling next in line, watched both of those happen from the outside.
So across two straight title bookings, the UFC had a clean opportunity to put the Armenian in a meaningful fight and went another way each time. If you’re Tsarukyan, or if you’re a Dagestani champion trying to sell yourself as the only logical opponent for him, that’s useful evidence. Nurmagomedov ran down the list of options for Arman with real swagger.
“Who would you match Arman against (if not me)? Who’s there for Arman in the UFC? Pimblett, no. Topuria, no,” he said.
That’s sharp politicking. Pimblett and Topuria are the two names who move the needle at 155, and he’s quietly suggesting the UFC won’t feed either one to Tsarukyan.
Money explains it better than doubt
Here’s where I get off the bus. A promotion that sits on a “cash cow” doesn’t make matchmaking decisions off a 30 percent win probability. It makes them off pay-per-view math. Those are two different calculations, and Nurmagomedov is blending them on purpose.
Topuria vs. Oliveira was a star fight with a belt on it. Gaethje vs. Pimblett was two fan favorites who sell tickets in their sleep. Neither booking needed a secret scouting report on Topuria’s chances against Tsarukyan to make sense. They made sense because the UFC wanted its biggest draws in its biggest fights, and Tsarukyan, for all his talent, hasn’t been treated as that kind of draw by the people doing the booking.
And the protect-Topuria theory has a problem now. Gaethje is the champion, and he got there by beating Topuria. If the UFC had been tiptoeing Topuria around danger, it walked him straight into a guy who took the belt off him. That’s an odd way to shelter an investment.
There’s also the obvious self-interest. Nurmagomedov’s whole case, as Bloody Elbow laid it out, is that if Tsarukyan ends up holding the belt when Usman officially arrives, he should jump Topuria and get the first crack at him. Arguing that Topuria is a non-option against Tsarukyan clears the line in front of him. I don’t blame him for it. Fighters who wait politely get Fight Night co-mains. But I’d treat it as a sales pitch first and an analysis second.
His leverage is real, his timing is not
What Nurmagomedov does have is momentum. He fought out his PFL contract in August, then knocked out Archie Colgan in one round at PFL New York to keep his belt and walk into free agency as champion. Bloody Elbow describes him as rumored to be signing with the UFC, and he’s been tipped for years as someone who could win gold on the sport’s biggest stage. A first-round finish as your exit fight is about as clean a résumé closer as anyone gets.
The problem is everything in his pitch depends on dominoes he can’t push. Gaethje has to decide whether to fight again or retire on top. Tsarukyan is expected to get the next shot only if Gaethje keeps going. Tsarukyan then has to win. And Nurmagomedov has to actually sign, which can’t even start until the PFL’s exclusive window closes.
That’s four ifs stacked on top of each other, and he’s already booking his title defense against the hypothetical champion.
I’d love to see Usman in the UFC. Tsarukyan vs. Nurmagomedov is the kind of grappler-who-strikes chess match that hardcore fans would stay up until 3 a.m. for. But Topuria hasn’t been avoided because the UFC thinks he loses. He’s been spent where the money is, and Nurmagomedov said exactly that himself in four words. Next step for him is the one he can’t control: waiting out the PFL’s exclusive window before the UFC is even allowed to make an offer.
