Carlos Prates recently posted a video calling himself “wrestling’s worst nightmare,” and within a day the reply had come from Álvaro Colmenero on X: if negotiations stay on course, Prates fights Islam Makhachev for the welterweight title on January 30 at UFC 336 in Toronto. Nothing is official. Neither the date nor the venue, reportedly Scotiabank Arena, has been confirmed by the promotion. But the shape of it is already clear enough to argue about, and I think it’s the wrong fight at the wrong time for the man with the most to lose.
Start with the calendar, because that’s what is really driving this. Makhachev said after beating Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330 in August that he needs to fight before Ramadan, which is expected to begin around February 8, 2027. “We have to fight before Ramadan, 100 per cent,” he said, and later, “I am 34 years old, and I have to fight as soon as possible.” That is a perfectly reasonable thing for a devout champion to want. It also means the UFC has a narrow window to fill and a challenger who happens to be loud, available and freshly signed to an eight-fight deal. Prates is getting the shot partly because the timing is convenient for everyone except, maybe, Prates.
His case on paper is strong, and I won’t pretend otherwise. He’s 24-7, and Yahoo Sports notes he has knocked out all seven of his UFC opponents, including former welterweight champions Jack Della Maddalena and Leon Edwards in his last two outings. The Della Maddalena knockout in May reportedly moved him ahead of Michael Morales, who sat as the backup for Makhachev vs. Garry and has been making his own claim. You can’t call that record a fluke.
View post on X
You also can’t call it preparation for Makhachev.
What 17 in a row actually means
Makhachev’s UFC winning streak stands at 17. He has held titles in two divisions. He moved up from lightweight, took the 170-pound belt by outpointing Della Maddalena at UFC 322 last November, then went five rounds with Garry in what Yahoo described as a back-and-forth fight and won a unanimous decision. That’s the résumé of a man produced by the Dagestani system, where wrestling is a childhood, a neighborhood and a way of organizing a life long before it’s a career. The work behind a streak like that is mostly invisible: thousands of mat hours nobody filmed, coaches nobody interviews, partners who never get a highlight. Prates’ career has been built for the camera, seven knockouts in seven UFC fights, a nickname, a callout video. Makhachev’s was built for the fifth round.
That’s the mismatch I keep coming back to. The UFC is very good at selling a striker’s highlight reel and very bad at asking whether that reel has been tested against the specific problem waiting for him. None of Prates’ seven UFC opponents was Islam Makhachev, and the next one is the man who has spent 17 straight fights dragging good fighters into deep water.
View post on X
The best argument for booking it now
The strongest counterargument is simple: Prates finished Della Maddalena, and Makhachev only outpointed him. If the challenger did something to a shared opponent that the champion couldn’t, what more does he need to prove?
I’d answer that the shared result tells you less than it seems to. A knockout of Della Maddalena tells you Prates can hit a world-class welterweight. A decision over Della Maddalena tells you Makhachev can control one for 25 minutes without needing to hit him hard. Those are different skills, and only one of them decides what happens when the fight leaves the feet. Prates’ teammate Jean Silva told MMA Fighting that Makhachev is “not going to stand and trade with Prates,” and added, “It’s five rounds; I doubt he can go five rounds without taking a big shot from Prates.” Silva means that as a threat. Read it again and it sounds like the champion’s game plan, written out by the challenger’s own camp.
The Fighting Nerds have had a rough recent reminder of how quickly a rise can stall. Mauricio Ruffy, another name from that gym, was brutally stopped by Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 331 and missed out on a possible fight with lightweight champion Justin Gaethje. Different fight, different division, same lesson about what happens when a contender’s next opponent is a step up in a particular way.
View post on X
Who this protects
To be fair to the UFC, Prates has been asking for this. He called out Makhachev for UFC 334 and UFC 335 before January came up, and a fighter who wants the belt shouldn’t be told to wait forever. But wanting it and being served it on a deadline are different things. UFC 335 on December 12 was reportedly too soon for a champion who revealed minor spinal issues after the Garry fight, so the promotion slid to the last open date before Ramadan. Every scheduling decision here bends around Makhachev. Nobody seems to be asking what timeline is best for the 24-7 Brazilian who will walk in as the underdog.
If Prates wins on January 30, I’ll happily eat this column in Toronto. If he loses the way Makhachev’s challengers usually lose, slowly and on the mat, the UFC will have spent its most exciting welterweight in a single night to fill a slot on the calendar, and Morales will be standing right there as the next one.