Sean Strickland made a fight prediction this week, and it might be the least chaotic thing he’s done since Monday. That bar is low. On Monday his own account posted video of him talking his Amazon delivery driver into a dirt bike stunt that went terribly wrong. By Tuesday he’d moved on to the UFC 334 heavyweight title fight, and he’s picking Josh Hokit to take the belt off Ciryl Gane this Saturday.
Here’s the quote, which Championship Rounds pulled from Strickland’s account on X:
“When [Gane] fought Jon Jones, his wrestling was so bad. Josh Hokit is a smart guy, he’s gonna take him down. I’m thinking either a TKO or submission in the 2nd or 3rd round.”
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I think he’s right about the method. I’m less sold on the timeline, and I’ll get to that.
The tape Gane can’t outrun
Strickland’s whole case rests on one fight, and it’s the right fight to pick. Gane has spent his career getting praised as the most graceful heavyweight on the roster, the guy who moves like a middleweight and makes big men look like they’re wading through a swimming pool. The Jones fight is where that reputation runs into a wall. Strickland watched it and came away convinced Gane can’t stop a committed takedown, and he isn’t exactly going out on a limb. When a heavyweight champion’s biggest loss gets remembered for what happened on the mat, every challenger with a game plan is going to circle it in red.
And Strickland says Hokit has a game plan. Smart guy, he called him. That’s a specific compliment from a specific kind of fighter. Strickland’s never been the guy who gushes about anybody’s fight IQ (he’d rather tell you who he wants to fight in a parking lot), so when he credits Hokit’s brain over his size or his power, he’s telling you the path to victory is boring and repeatable. Get in on the hips, get Gane down, keep him there, and let the damage pile up until a referee or a choke ends it.
That’s why I like the pick. A champion with a known hole against a challenger who supposedly knows where the hole is makes for a better bet than vibes.
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Where I’d push back
The second-or-third-round window feels a little too tidy. If the takedowns are there, I’d expect Hokit to go hunting in the first round while he’s fresh, because heavyweight gas tanks don’t get better with age, and a guy who’s been told all camp that Gane folds on the mat isn’t going to wait politely for Round 2. If the takedowns aren’t there early, Gane’s footwork gets more dangerous as the fight goes on, and the late-round finish Strickland is picturing starts looking like a wishful thought.
So my version is the same fight on a faster clock. Hokit either wins it early on the ground or he’s in real trouble.
Hokit is selling the dog in himself
The stuff around this fight backs up the idea that Hokit’s built for an ugly night. Ariel Helwani posted a clip of Hokit explaining why he still lives in the dorms at Jackson Wink during camp, despite his recent success. He’s had the same room for two years, his stuff is all in there, and he says the grime keeps him honest:
“There’s something about a cockroach crawling across the floor, a crackhead outside keeping you up at night, that reminds you of how it all started for you.”
That’s the most Rocky IV training montage answer anybody’s given this year, and I mean that as praise. He also pointed to the practical side. He’s a door away from the cages and the open mat on the days he’s dragging, there’s the altitude, and he’s got Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn in the building. A wrestling-heavy game plan built by two of the best coaches in the sport’s history, drilled by a guy who sleeps next to the mat, sounds a lot like the fight Strickland is describing.
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Hokit is also leaning hard into the bad-guy energy, which I’m always going to support. Spinnin Backfist shared a clip of him saying he’s willing to go eye poke for eye poke on Saturday night, plus a lot of other stuff that doesn’t need repeating. Another clip shows him slipping right into character the moment he spotted Poatan. Some of that is just a fighter enjoying fight week. Some of it is a challenger telling a champion he’s ready for a dirty, grinding, uncomfortable fight, which is exactly the kind of fight Gane has historically wanted no part of.
My pick
Strickland’s pick is right, even if his timing is off. Gane’s case for keeping the belt is that he’s a better athlete and a better striker in open space. Hokit’s case is that open space is a choice, and he plans to take it away. The Jones fight is the only real evidence anybody has on how Gane handles that problem against an elite opponent, and the evidence isn’t kind to him.
I’m taking Hokit by submission, and I think it happens before the horn ends Round 1. If Gane stuffs the first three takedowns, I’ll admit I’m wrong in this space next week. But I don’t think he stuffs them. UFC 334 goes down this Saturday, November 14, and the first clinch against the fence is going to tell you everything.
