Robert Whittaker went on his MMArcade Podcast and picked against Charles Oliveira, which in most rooms is a quick way to lose an argument. The Reaper took Diego Lopes, a two-time featherweight title challenger moving up to 155 pounds, to beat the Brazilian for the BMF belt in the UFC 335 main event on December 12. He’s right. His reasoning is also sharper than the usual podcast pick built on nothing but vibes, because he went straight at the one thing that makes Oliveira scary.
The setup first. UFC 335 closes out the promotion’s 2026 calendar, and the card announced this past Saturday also has Alex Pereira’s second heavyweight fight, against Sergei Pavlovich. On top sits Oliveira making the first defense of the BMF title he won from Max Holloway at UFC 326. Lopes walks in as the underdog, which makes sense on paper. He’s a newcomer to the division, and he’s coming off two failed bids at featherweight gold against Alexander Volkanovski.
Whittaker Aimed at the Mat
This is the part of the pick worth chewing on. Whittaker made clear he’s a fan of Oliveira, then said the quiet part out loud.
“I love Charles Oliveira like everybody else, okay? But I don’t think Charles will have the ground superiority that he always has,” Whittaker said.
That’s the whole fight in one sentence. Oliveira’s entire brand is the ground. When opponents end up on the mat with him, they usually end up in trouble. Whittaker’s bet is that Lopes takes that advantage away, or at least shrinks it enough that the fight becomes a test of something else. And once it becomes a test of something else, Whittaker likes the younger man’s odds.
“And I think if it comes to just toughness, guts, and just walking people down, Lopes has to be the favorite,” he added.
I’ll co-sign that. Toughness and guts sound like bumper-sticker analysis until you remember who Lopes has been sharing a cage with. You don’t earn two shots at Volkanovski by folding when things get hard. You earn them by being the guy nobody wants to fight in a phone booth. Whittaker is a former middleweight champion who has eaten shots from killers, and when a guy like that says “guts” decides a fight, I listen.
The BMF Belt Owes Us One
There’s also a plot here that has nothing to do with Whittaker. Oliveira’s win over Holloway in March drew real heat. Plenty of fans felt his grappling-heavy approach clashed with what the BMF title is supposed to mean. That’s like winning a hot dog eating contest by talking the other guy into a salad. Legal? Sure. Fun? Ask the people who paid for the pay-per-view.
Nobody expects a sequel to that lackluster main event, mostly because Lopes doesn’t do boring. His fights tend to be entertaining, which is the whole point of the belt. If Whittaker is correct and Oliveira can’t lean on the mat the way he did against Holloway, Do Bronx gets dragged into a brawl. In a brawl, I’m taking the guy who has been built for brawls his whole career.
To be fair to Oliveira, he has a lot to protect. He’s still chasing the actual lightweight title and has already staked his claim for a rematch with newly crowned champion Justin Gaethje. This BMF defense is the toll booth on the road to that fight. Lose to a featherweight in his first 155-pound outing, and the Gaethje rematch talk gets very quiet very fast. Desperation can make a fighter dangerous. It can also make him tight, and tight fighters reach for the comfortable thing, which for Oliveira is the takedown Whittaker doesn’t think will be there.
The Size Question
The obvious pushback is weight. Lopes is the one moving up, so he’s the one who has to prove he belongs. That’s a fair worry, and the betting market seems to agree, since he’ll enter as the underdog. But Whittaker clearly didn’t care about the potential size difference, and I don’t either. Lopes is moving up after two losses to Volkanovski, so this is a fresh start rather than a retreat, and fighters on a fresh start tend to show up angry.
“I love this fight, especially for Diego Lopes. I think he gets it done,” Whittaker said.
Same. Oliveira is a legend and I’d never call him a safe bet to lose anything. But the BMF belt was built for the guy who walks forward and dares you to stop him, and on December 12 that guy is Diego Lopes. Give me the upset to close out the year.
