Robbie Lawler doesn’t feel like an underdog against Khamzat Chimaev. That’s the headline both Yahoo Sports and MMA Junkie ran Thursday ahead of their grappling bout at RAF 14, and I believe him completely. Whether the betting public should believe him is a separate conversation, and it’s the one that costs money.
Every fighter who has ever been listed at plus-money has told a reporter the label doesn’t matter. I’ve heard it from guys who won and from guys who got folded in half a minute in, and the sentence sounds identical both times. A fighter’s confidence is a feeling. A price is an opinion with a wallet attached. So let’s look at what’s actually in front of Lawler.
The dent in the armor
The best argument for Lawler’s mood is May 9, 2026. At UFC 328 at the Prudential Center in Newark, Chimaev lost the middleweight title to Sean Strickland by split decision in his first defense. It was the first loss of his career. MMA Fighting called it a disappointing performance, and a Stadium Rant piece on Yahoo noted that plenty of people question the result. Both things can be true. The decision was close, and the aura still took a hit, because the zero in his loss column was half of Chimaev’s betting appeal for years. Books price fear, and one split decision removed some of it.
That loss also explains why Chimaev is on a wrestling card at all. According to MMA Fighting, he’s in need of a fight and wants the Strickland rematch, while Strickland looks more likely to face Nassourdine Imavov, assuming Strickland fights at all given his pay standoff with the UFC. Dana White told reporters Strickland “just signed a new contract in May,” so that mess isn’t getting cleaned up by Friday. A wildly talented man with nowhere to go at 185 takes the work that’s available.
The case against getting cute
Now the part Lawler backers won’t enjoy. The thing Chimaev does best is the thing a grappling ruleset rewards. Robert Whittaker, who said he sat “at the top of the food chain for a long time” at middleweight, pitched Brendan Allen as Chimaev’s next opponent on his MMArcade Podcast. His reasoning was that Allen’s jiu-jitsu might disrupt “Chimaev’s dominant top control game.” Whittaker was talking about MMA. Take the punches away and top control is most of what’s left.
Chimaev’s résumé before Strickland wasn’t built on hope, either. At UFC 319 he dominated Dricus du Plessis in a title fight, per MMA Fighting. One split decision in an MMA title fight doesn’t tell me his grappling slipped. It tells me Strickland is a hard man to beat on the cards.
Lawler’s championship came in MMA, where you can hit people. Nobody gets hit in this one. Whatever edges carried him to UFC gold, the ones that involve his hands stay home.
The card itself is a question mark
One more thing should keep your money in your pocket for now. On Oct. 12, MMA Fighting reported that RAF Abu Dhabi, set for Nov. 14 at Etihad Arena, would be headlined by Colby Covington vs. Chimaev for the cruiserweight crossover title. Three days later, the headlines say Lawler vs. Chimaev at RAF 14. The reporting I have doesn’t spell out how those two pieces fit together, and I’m not going to guess. I will say that when the name across from a fighter changes inside 72 hours, I wait for the dust to settle before betting either side. Lines move on news like this, and the people who fire on day one usually end up donating.
The RAF results already on the books hint at the danger for Lawler. Diana Avsaragova, a Bellator and PFL veteran, lost by tech fall to RAF middleweight champ Kennedy Blades at RAF 13 in September. Experienced combat sports athletes can still get run off the mat on points in this format. That’s the scenario Lawler is staring at: a gap that opens fast against a man whose whole game is getting on top and staying there.
Where I land
Lawler is right to say the underdog tag doesn’t change how he feels. That’s his job, and a former UFC champion who walks in scared has already lost. But a fighter not feeling like an underdog is a mood, and moods don’t stop takedowns. If the number on Lawler gets fat enough, I’ll take a sniff, because a confident dog at a big price is my favorite kind of bad decision. Short of that, I’m sitting this one out until RAF makes clear who Chimaev is wrestling and when. I’ve already lost enough money on vibes.
