Petr Yan had the easy answer sitting right there. A fellow Russian is fighting for UFC gold in the main event of the same card Yan is defending his own belt on. All he had to do was say something warm about Movsar Evloev, wave the flag a little and move on. Instead he leaned toward Alexander Volkanovski. I think he’s right, and I think the way he got there tells you more than the pick itself.
Here’s the setup, per Bloody Elbow. UFC 333 goes down October 24 in Abu Dhabi. Yan is the first champion in action that night, making the first defense of his second run as bantamweight king in a trilogy fight with Merab Dvalishvili. The card closes with Volkanovski, a two-time featherweight champion, putting the 145-pound title on the line against Evloev. Two Russians could walk out of that building with belts. Yan isn’t betting on it.
Talking to UFC Eurasia (h/t Red Corner MMA), Yan laid it out: “If Volkanovski is in good shape, good condition, then it might be a tough one for Movsar.” Then came the line that should keep Evloev’s camp up at night. “In this scenario, to beat Volkanovski, Movsar will need to either submit him or knock him out. Just those two ways (to win).”
The Bias Switched Teams
The headline everywhere is that Yan set national loyalty aside, and sure, technically. But let’s be honest about what happened. Yan didn’t pick with the cold detachment of a Vegas oddsmaker. He picked his friend. He has called Volkanovski a “friend,” the two trained together at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand, and Yan has already said he won’t move up to featherweight to challenge the Aussie because of that history.
So Yan had two biases in front of him and chose which one wins. Passport or sparring partner. Your cousin or your college roommate in the Thanksgiving touch football game. Yan went roommate.
And that doesn’t make the pick worse. If anything it makes it more interesting. A guy who has shared mats with Volkanovski in Thailand has a read on him that nobody watching tape from a couch can match. When that guy says the version of Volkanovski who shows up in good condition is a problem, I’m inclined to listen.
55/45 Is a Real Number
I like that Yan put an actual figure on it. “It’s an interesting matchup. 55/45 in favor of Volkanovski,” he said. That’s a lean with plenty of room for doubt, and he gave Evloev his flowers in the same breath, saying the challenger is “younger and more motivated, but he still has to beat today’s version of Volkanovski.”
That last phrase is the whole fight. Today’s version. Yan is basically conceding that the calendar is on Evloev’s side while arguing it doesn’t matter until somebody proves it inside the cage. Plenty of champions have been declared finished by people who never had to stand in front of them. Yan sounds like a man who knows better.
The finish-or-nothing comment is the spicy part, and I’d love to hear Evloev answer it directly. If Yan believes the only roads to victory are a knockout or a submission, he’s saying that over the full distance of a title fight, Volkanovski’s experience and skill set win the minutes. That’s a pointed thing to say about a countryman who is about to fight for a belt, even wrapped in a 55/45 bow.
There’s also a conditional baked into all of this, and Yan was smart to include it. Everything hinges on Volkanovski being in good shape. If he isn’t, Yan’s own logic flips, and suddenly the younger, hungrier guy has the edge. That’s a hedge, but it’s an honest one.
The Self-Interest Wrinkle Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s what gets me. Yan has floated a future move to featherweight to chase two-division status. He’s also ruled out fighting Volkanovski. Do the math. An Evloev win would arguably clear the friendship roadblock and hand Yan a much more natural target at 145. That’s my read, not anything Yan said, but it means his pick runs against his own long-term interest. A guy angling for a matchup would be quietly rooting for the belt to change hands. Yan picked the champ anyway.
That’s why I buy it. Fighters who call it straight, even when it costs them a little goodwill at home, are the ones worth quoting.
Yan still has his own problem first. He has to get through Dvalishvili on October 24 before he gets to sit cageside and find out if his 55 beats Evloev’s 45. If Volkanovski is in the shape Yan expects, his friend from Tiger Muay Thai leaves Abu Dhabi with the featherweight belt, and the bantamweight champ looks like the sharpest analyst on the card.
