Merab Dvalishvili checked into his Yas Island hotel room this week, the UFC posted the clip on X, and then he spent media day doing something fighters rarely do. He told everyone exactly where he went wrong. Speaking in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, Dvalishvili said he doesn’t regret his four-fight 2025, but he wouldn’t repeat the part that cost him the most.
“But if you ask me again to fight Petr Yan two months after I defended my belt, I’m not going to do the same thing right now. Because I needed more time against Petr Yan,” he said, per Cageside Press.
That admission is the most useful piece of film study you’ll get before Saturday. Dvalishvili and Yan meet for a third time in the UFC 333 co-main event at Etihad Arena (Paramount+, 2 p.m. ET on Oct. 24), with Yan holding the bantamweight title he took back at UFC 323 in December. Dvalishvili is the challenger now, after 10 months out of the cage.
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How we got here
The first fight, in March 2023, was the Merab Experience at full volume. He won a unanimous decision and set the UFC record for takedown attempts in a single bout with 49. That fight sat inside a 14-fight win streak that ran through José Aldo, Henry Cejudo and Sean O’Malley, and he’s now credited with 119 successful takedowns, the most in UFC history.
Then came 2025. Dvalishvili defended the belt three times in one calendar year (Umar Nurmagomedov in January, O’Malley in June among them) and took the Yan rematch before the year ended. Yan won a unanimous decision. Dvalishvili’s own summary, from a prefight interview reported by Yahoo Sports, was that the first fight was one-sided for him and the second was one-sided “but not very for me.” Dry, and fairly accurate.
What broke in the rematch
T.J. Dillashaw, speaking on Mike Bohn’s “The Bohnfire” podcast for MMA Junkie, gave the cleanest diagnosis. He credited Yan’s takedown defense as the deciding factor and laid out the math that sinks a pressure wrestler: when shot after shot fails, the defender’s gas tank holds up better than the guy shooting, even if the shooter is the fitter athlete. Dillashaw also flagged the part people miss. Dvalishvili did get Yan down, but Yan kept getting back to his feet, so the control never stuck.
I’d go a step further, and this is my read. The difference between Merab’s two Yan fights shows up most in the chaining. In 2023 the attempts arrived in sequences, each failed entry setting up the next angle, so Yan spent the night defending a wrestling problem instead of throwing combinations. A fighter coming off a short turnaround after three title fights has every reason to lose the crispness between links, and against a Master of Sport in boxing, a single takedown attempt with no follow-up just gives Yan a free look at your body.
Dvalishvili raised the 2025 schedule himself in a different light, saying in the Yahoo interview that he never complained when he was busy and would show up even if something bothered him. Read that next to the Cageside quote and you get a fighter who won’t make excuses but has clearly redesigned the calendar.
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Keys for Dvalishvili
Dillashaw’s prescription fits what Merab does best. He said 40 takedown attempts is fine, as long as they work as feints and as a jab, keeping Yan out of rhythm even when nothing finishes. He also wants Dvalishvili digging to the body as much as Yan did to him, if not more.
That last point matters. Yan’s best weapons in the rematch, according to Dillashaw, were the jab, the left kick from southpaw and steady body work. If Dvalishvili makes Yan pay a tax every time he loads that left kick, either by changing levels underneath it or punching the ribs on the way in, he takes away the shot that lets Yan control range.
The ride is the other issue. Getting Yan down was only ever half the job. Expect more mat returns and more time spent attached on the back when Yan stands, because the takedown count looks great on a stat sheet and means very little to judges if Yan is up in four seconds.
Keys for Yan
Yan’s plan is simpler, and that’s an advantage. Dillashaw wants him working the body even more than last time and keeping the takedown defense sharp, while accepting that Dvalishvili will get in on his legs sometimes. Yan doesn’t need to stuff everything. He needs to stand up fast, keep the jab honest and keep hitting the midsection of a man whose whole system runs on cardio.
There’s a confidence piece too. Dillashaw is leaning Yan, arguing that the December win proved Yan has the answers and that the belief carries forward. Yan also has a new face in the corner this week: he confirmed his son will be with him, saying in a UFC interview that “He wanted to do it. Who am I to say no?”
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The temperature
Dvalishvili has been calm. He told MMA Fighting, “I’m a different person at a different stage. … I just want to win against him. If I lose, it’s just a loss.” He also told Daniel Cormier the two will never be friends, per Cormier’s post on X, and he called the title secondary to beating Yan himself. His line from the UFC’s interview was blunt: “I believe I’m much better than him and I have to prove it.”
Sean O’Malley is already lurking, warning Yan in a clip shared by Championship Rounds that a win means a fight with him. And the UFC noted both men are climbing the list of most bantamweight wins in UFC history, so whoever leaves with the belt also adds to a very real historical case.
My pick
Dillashaw’s case for Yan is sound, and Yan (20-5, 12-4 UFC per MMA Junkie) earned the favorite’s chair in December. But the version of Dvalishvili who lost that fight was on his fourth hard camp of the year, and he’s now had 10 months to rebuild the one thing that wins this matchup, the chain. If the attempts come in linked sequences again and he keeps Yan down long enough to matter, the cardio gap flips back in his direction by the championship rounds.
I’m taking Dvalishvili by decision, and I’d like to see three judges who actually score the grappling exchanges instead of counting standups as damage. Saturday, Oct. 24, Etihad Arena.
