Mark Coleman has never been confused for a subtle man, and his UFC 334 pick is about as subtle as a double leg into the fence. The promotion’s first heavyweight champion is taking Josh Hokit to upset Ciryl Gane in tonight’s main event. I think he’s onto something, provided Hokit actually listens to him.
Coverage of the interview ran on Heavy and then Yahoo Sports. Coleman made the call on “Bowks Talking Bouts,” with BJPenn.com picking up the quotes, and he didn’t hedge. He said he’d been on Hokit’s bandwagon from the start, and the reason is pure Coleman: the guy played football and wrestled in college. That’s the Hammer’s origin story in a different jersey, and he admitted it got him fired up because it’s exactly what he wanted to be.
So yes, there’s some projection here. A legendary wrestler likes the wrestler. Shocking. But the pick holds up once you get past the nostalgia.
The Odds Say Gane, the Matchup Says Maybe
The final lines have Gane at -200 and Hokit at +170. Roughly translated, the books think the champ wins about two out of three. That feels right if you assume the fight happens where Gane wants it. Coleman doesn’t assume that, and neither should you.
This is Gane’s first defense of the belt, and it’s a classic striker vs. grappler setup. Standing, Gane is the guy you favor, full stop. Coleman knows it better than anybody picking Hokit. He was blunt about the danger, saying “a fresh Ciryl Gane oh, that boy will knock you out really quick if he’s fresh.”
That word “fresh” is doing all the work in his prediction. Coleman’s plan isn’t to out-tough Gane on the feet. It’s to drain him first. Take him down, ride him, make him carry 250-plus pounds of college wrestler on his chest, and only then start trading. He said Hokit should at least soften Gane up and tire him out a little before they exchange on the feet.
Honestly? That’s the only version of this fight where I’d put money on the plus side.
Swallow the Pride, Shoot the Takedown
The best part of the interview was Coleman openly worrying that Hokit might get cute. He told Hokit to swallow his pride, and then he brought up Justin Gaethje as the cautionary tale. Coleman said he loves Gaethje but noted the guy has eaten a ton of shots over his career, adding “I love his style, but I don’t think; it’s not the best way to win.”
Then came the thesis statement: “The champions know, if you look at all the champions, they can take people down and they can keep them down. That’s how you win.”
It’s an old-school take, and it’s correct for this specific fight. Hokit is a guy who has turned himself into a full-blown character. Coleman called him a “social media king” and gave his rap song a 10 out of 10, which is the most enthusiastic music review a Hall of Famer has ever delivered on a fight podcast. I love a fighter who builds a persona and then has to cash it on fight night. That’s the whole fun of the sport.
The risk is that personas come with egos, and egos want to prove they can hang on the feet with the champ. If Hokit falls in love with the walk-out and forgets the wrestling, he’s playing Gane’s game against a guy who, by Coleman’s own estimate, will put him to sleep quickly. Coleman’s line “it’s always an advantage to be on top of somebody. That’s a fact” should be written on Hokit’s hand wraps.
The Cardio Card
Coleman also took a shot at the division as a whole, saying heavyweight is shallow and calling it “kind of sad after the top six, seven guys.” He added that even some of the top names “still get tired as hell, man.”
That’s the part that makes this upset pick feel less like a sentimental favorite and more like a read. Heavyweight fights swing on gas tanks. If Hokit can force Gane to wrestle early, the champion’s movement and volume aren’t the same weapons in Round 3 or Round 4 as they are in Round 1. A tired striker throws slower, and a slower Gane is a beatable Gane.
Coleman, being Coleman, also suggested Hokit “Throw a headbutt if you have to.” For legal reasons, I’ll recommend Hokit skip that part of the advice. The ground and pound portion, though, is right on.
My Pick
I’m landing where the Hammer landed, with one condition. If Hokit shoots early and keeps shooting, +170 is the best bet on the card, and Gane’s first defense turns into a long night on his back. If Hokit wants to stand and trade to prove something to his followers, Gane wins inside the distance and the rap song gets a sad remix.
Coleman has been on the Hokit wagon since day one. Tonight at UFC 334, Hokit has to wrestle like the guy Coleman thinks he is.
