Spanish-language MMA reporter Álvaro Colmenero tweeted on Monday that Islam Makhachev vs. Carlos Prates is on track for UFC 336 on January 30 in Toronto, as long as negotiations keep moving the way they are. Championship Rounds and Bloody Elbow picked it up from there. Nothing is signed. Prates, though, has already said publicly that he has an agreement with the UFC to challenge for the welterweight title, pending a date and location, according to MMA Fighting. So this looks more like logistics than fantasy booking.
One correction to the way this is being framed in some places. Makhachev is the welterweight champion now. He won the belt by outpointing Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 last November and defended it against Ian Machado Garry over five rounds at UFC 330 in August. Justin Gaethje is the lightweight champion after beating Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250. Prates would be Makhachev’s second title defense at 170.
Why this fight, and why January
The timing is Makhachev’s call as much as anyone’s. Right after the Garry fight he said, “We have to fight before Ramadan, 100 per cent,” and added, “I am 34 years old, and I have to fight as soon as possible.” Ramadan begins at the start of February 2027, so January 30 is about as late as the calendar allows. He also said he isn’t cutting much weight and has no major injuries beyond needing to “double-check my nose.” That’s a man who can take a short-ish turnaround without the usual welterweight-to-lightweight-shaped excuses.
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Prates earned the spot the loud way. Since the decision loss to Machado Garry in April 2025, he’s knocked out Geoff Neal in the first round at UFC 319, Leon Edwards in the second at UFC 322 (same card where Makhachev won the belt), and Della Maddalena by TKO in the third at UFC Fight Night 275 on May 2. Two former champions in a row. As of June 20 he sat No. 1 in the UFC welterweight rankings. Nobody else in the division has a better argument.
The common opponents tell a story
This is the fun part. Both men have fought Machado Garry and Della Maddalena, and the results cut in opposite directions.
Against Della Maddalena, Prates finished him and Makhachev only outpointed him. Against Machado Garry, Makhachev won and Prates lost a unanimous decision. My read is that the second result matters more for this fight. Della Maddalena is a pressure boxer who walks into range, which is exactly where Prates’ counters live. Machado Garry beat Prates by managing distance over a long fight, and Makhachev doesn’t need to manage distance so much as close it on his terms.
Jean Silva, Prates’ teammate at Fighting Nerds in São Paulo, sees the Garry fight differently. He told MMA Fighting that Makhachev only stood and traded with Garry because Garry lacks Prates’ power. “He’s not going to stand and trade with Prates,” Silva said, before adding the line that’s making the rounds: “The moment he lands his hand, the fight is over.” He’s right about the first part. I just think he’s describing Makhachev’s game plan and calling it a weakness.
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The takedown problem, for both of them
Here’s the stat that makes this interesting. When Prates headlined against Neil Magny, he stopped all seven of Magny’s takedown attempts, dropped him twice, and finished him at 4:50 of Round 1. Magny is a durable, persistent wrestler at welterweight. Seven for seven is real.
But Magny shooting and Makhachev shooting are different sports. Makhachev is a world champion in combat sambo (FIAS gold in 2016) and his entries come off strikes and clinch ties, with chain attacks that keep going after the first one fails. The first takedown in Round 1 isn’t the one to watch. The one to watch is the third or fourth attempt in Round 2, after Prates has spent energy sprawling and Makhachev has learned how far back he has to go to get off the knee.
That knee is Prates’ best weapon in this fight, in my read. He finished Charles Radtke with a knee to the body in the first round, and his Muay Thai record includes two first-round knockouts with knees to the body. A level change against a long Muay Thai fighter who throws knees up the middle is the single most dangerous moment in the matchup. If Makhachev dips his head into one in Round 1, Silva looks like a prophet.
The flip side is defense. Prates fights with his hands low and relies on length to keep people at the end of his punches. Makhachev doesn’t need to win a kickboxing match to make that a problem. He needs to land a straight shot or a kick on the way in, take the reaction, and clinch. He holds the lightweight record for significant-strike accuracy at 59.5%, which is a fancy way of saying he doesn’t waste much.
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Durability and the late rounds
Makhachev has one loss in his career, a first-round knockout against Adriano Martins at UFC 192 in October 2015. He’s won 17 straight since, the longest streak in UFC history. Prates has never been asked to defend himself against top-level grappling for 25 minutes, and the latest he’s finished anyone in the UFC is the third round against Della Maddalena. Rounds 4 and 5 are Makhachev’s territory. They were against Della Maddalena and Machado Garry, too.
And yes, Prates smokes roughly 10 to 15 Marlboros a day, by his own long-documented habit, including on fight days. It hasn’t cost him yet. I’d still rather not test those lungs with Makhachev’s weight on them in the championship rounds.
My pick
Prates is the most dangerous striker Makhachev has faced at 170, and the first 10 minutes will be tense. I don’t think that’s enough. Makhachev gets his first clean takedown in Round 2, piles on top time, and finishes it with a submission in Round 4, or takes a wide decision if Prates’ hips hold up. If he wins, he heads into Ramadan with three welterweight title wins and the Fighting Nerds have to rethink the plan. If Prates lands the knee early, Toronto gets the upset of the year on January 30.
