Arman Tsarukyan keeps doing the hard part. He keeps winning, he keeps looking terrifying, and somehow he keeps ending up in the waiting room with a number and a stack of old magazines.
Now Joe Rogan, who has been one of the loudest voices saying Tsarukyan should be next for Justin Gaethje, admitted on his podcast that he wouldn’t be shocked if the UFC goes another direction. Bloody Elbow picked up the comments, and the alternative Rogan described is a Gaethje rematch with Charles Oliveira, potentially with the BMF belt and the lightweight title on the line together.
I’ll give you my position up front. Tsarukyan should get the next shot, and if the UFC passes on him, it’ll be because they chose the shinier poster. Gaethje vs. Oliveira 2 is a fun fight. It is also the wrong fight.
Rogan made the case for Tsarukyan before he made the case against
Listen to how Rogan framed it, because the order matters. He opened by saying the entire division is waiting on the champ: “155lbs is all hanging on whether Justin decides to retire, what does he do, who does he fight?”
Then he went all in on Tsarukyan. “I think Arman’s the fight, the big fight is Arman, especially after what Arman did to Ruffy, that’s the big fight, and also, that’s the most compelling fight because Arman looks like indestructible.”
That Ruffy line is the whole argument. In September, Tsarukyan knocked out Mauricio Ruffy in the first round of the UFC 331 co-main event. Ruffy was supposed to be the dangerous new problem at 155. Tsarukyan turned him into a highlight for somebody else’s reel and didn’t need a second round to do it.
Only after all that did Rogan pivot. If Oliveira gets past Diego Lopes and keeps the BMF strap, he said, “I could see that fight too,” meaning Gaethje vs. Oliveira for both belts. And then, to his credit, he immediately undercut his own hypothetical: “But then it seems like you’re denying Arman what he deserves, he deserves a title fight.”
When the guy pitching the alternative can’t get through the pitch without admitting it’s unfair, that tells you where the merit is.
The Oliveira path has a lot of ifs
Oliveira’s fight with Lopes headlines UFC 335, the last card of the year. So the snub scenario depends on Oliveira winning that one, Gaethje deciding to keep fighting, and Gaethje then deciding a rematch beats the guy everyone already agrees is No. 1. That’s three dominoes, and the UFC would be lining them up while the most deserving contender in the division sits there with his gloves on.
I get the appeal of a two-belt fight. Promotions love a graphic with two straps on it. But the BMF title was designed as a side dish. Using it to leapfrog a contender who just flatlined Ruffy is a fun way to sell pay-per-views and a lousy way to run a division.
Tsarukyan keeps handing the UFC the excuse
Here’s where I have to be fair to the promotion, because Tsarukyan doesn’t make defending him easy.
He’s in the UFC’s bad books for a reason. He withdrew from his previously scheduled title fight against Islam Makhachev, and Bloody Elbow notes the promotion has held his behavior against him. Since that withdrawal, he’s competed 17 times, and only two of those have been in the UFC. Seventeen! That’s a guy who clearly loves competing, and it’s also a guy giving his employer a long list of reasons to wonder where his head is.
Then there’s this week. Friday, Tsarukyan wrestles Dillon Danis in the RAF 14 main event. Thursday’s press conference ended early after it turned into a full brawl, with Tsarukyan throwing a punch toward Danis. I love press conference chaos as much as anybody alive, and Danis is about as sympathetic a target as a parking ticket. But if you’re the No. 1 contender with a history of the company side-eyeing your outside antics, swinging at Dillon Danis on a stage is not how you lock down a title shot. You’re giving the matchmakers a ready-made reason to look elsewhere.
Book the fight anyway
Still, none of that changes what happened in the cage. The 30-year-old has looked like the most dangerous lightweight on the roster, and Rogan, a guy with the UFC’s ear and a microphone at cageside, said out loud that he deserves the shot. Those wrestling matches aren’t costing him rounds against UFC opponents, and a pressure brawl with Danis doesn’t make the Ruffy knockout any less real.
If Gaethje wants the Oliveira rematch, that’s his call to lobby for. But the UFC sets the table, and I can’t stand champions who pick the comfortable rematch over the scariest guy in line. Tsarukyan vs. Gaethje is the fight Rogan called the most compelling. Make it.
First, though, Tsarukyan has to get through Friday on the RAF mats without throwing another punch at Danis. That would help.
