Jake Paul is coming back. The 29-year-old announced on X on Oct. 29 that he’ll box in Dubai on Christmas Eve. It will be his first fight since Anthony Joshua knocked him out and broke his jaw last December. “All I want for Christmas Eve is boxing in Dubai,” Paul wrote. In the same post he said nothing that had happened had changed his belief in himself, and that he’s hungrier than ever.
There’s no opponent yet. MMA Mania cited multiple reports naming former UFC contender Darren Till as the most likely choice, and Bloody Elbow reported that Till recently said he’s waiting for a contract to box Paul. Tommy Fury and Chris Eubank Jr. have also been linked to the fight. Paul is expected to name his opponent soon.
One familiar partner won’t be involved. Erich Richter of the New York Post reported that the fight won’t air on Netflix. That’s a notable break for Paul. Netflix carried Paul vs. Mike Tyson, Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3, Paul vs. Joshua and this year’s MVP MMA 1 card headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano. According to MMA Mania, the reason is internal turmoil at the streamer. Netflix head Ted Sarandos fired Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria and head of film Dan Lin after reports of stalled growth. Bajaria had been MVP co-owner Nakisa Bidarian’s biggest ally inside the company, and her exit left the promotion without its main contact there while Netflix restructures.
The bigger money story runs through Canelo Alvarez. Bloody Elbow reported that Paul vs. Canelo was a done deal in 2025 until Turki Alalshikh signed Alvarez to a multi-fight deal instead. Canelo returned Saturday in Riyadh and beat Christian Mbilli by unanimous decision (115-112, 116-111, 117-110) to win back the WBC super middleweight title. Paul responded on X right away. “Out of the ring for 13 months but still the same old Canelo. Respect. Did take a lot of punches though,” he wrote. “We will dance my friend, we will dance.”
MMA Mania argued that agreeing to this fight puts Paul back in good standing with the Saudi side of the sport. It also noted that Terence Crawford appears happily retired and that Dmitry Bivol is booked against Callum Smith on Dec. 12. That leaves a gap that Paul would very much like to fill.
My take: no sportsbook has hung a number yet, which is the only responsible position on a fight with no opponent. Once one does, I’ll be watching how the books price a guy coming off a year out and a broken jaw. If Paul opens as a heavy favorite against Till, that’s exactly the short-odds-after-a-layoff spot I’ve lost enough money on to recognize. I’d want to see him take a clean shot on Dec. 24 before I spend a dime on the Canelo talk.
