Oddsmakers have Jake Paul favored over Sean Strickland in a boxing match that doesn’t exist yet. FightBook MMA reported the line on Oct. 10, after three days in which Strickland went from grumbling about UFC pay to publicly flirting with Paul on X. The exact price wasn’t in the report I had in front of me. The direction was, and Paul is the chalk.
The whole thing came together fast. On Oct. 7, a clip circulated by Championship Rounds had Strickland saying he was “kinda over it” with the UFC and was “Contemplating just going to 205, knocking out my contract and scrapping with Jake Paul.” The same account framed that as Strickland weighing whether to vacate his belt and move up to light heavyweight to finish out his deal.
That same evening, Nassourdine Imavov reportedly ran into Strickland in Las Vegas, and the exchange got loud. In video posted by Championship Rounds, Imavov asked him, “What is your problem? You not sign the contract?” and then added, “Money? I have money, I give.” Strickland’s contribution was “Say what?” Not exactly a rebuttal.
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Paul jumped in shortly after midnight on Oct. 8. He posted a list of names he wants to fight before he hangs it up, and Strickland was fourth, behind Canelo Alvarez, Francis Ngannou and Conor McGregor and ahead of Darren Till, Ryan Garcia, KSI and Tom Aspinall, among others. He tagged MVP co-founder Nakisa Bidarian and told him to get it done. Paul then asked Strickland directly whether he was out of contract and told him to have his promoter call MVP.
Strickland answered within two hours. He wrote that he hadn’t decided whether to blow up his contract, but said punching Paul sounded a lot better than the UFC at the moment.
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By later on Oct. 8, Strickland had released a video that Championship Rounds described as him saying he’s done with the UFC and wants to move to boxing. In it he said the UFC has stopped caring and complained that the promotion doesn’t pay fighters enough to walk away. He also said he and his team are trying to sort it out, and that if the UFC blocks a boxing move, he’ll find a way to keep moving anyway.
So that’s where it stands. Strickland is still under UFC contract by his own account, he hasn’t committed to vacating anything, and the only formal paperwork in this story is the betting line.
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My take: I get why the book hung it on Paul. It’s a boxing match, Paul has been doing this full time, and Strickland would be crossing over from a sport where he can also kick, clinch and wrestle. But I’d want to see a signed contract before I bet a dime, because the biggest obstacle for Strickland is the UFC legal department, and Paul isn’t even the second-biggest. Pricing a fight before anyone knows if it can happen is how you end up holding a ticket on something that gets refunded in 2028. If this gets real, the number I care about is whether Strickland’s camp says he’s free to sign. Until then, the smartest bet is your wallet staying in your pocket.
