Israel Adesanya is riding with Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 333, according to MMA Sucka, and I’m guessing nobody in Auckland fell out of their chair over that one. The former middleweight champ picking Volk is about as surprising as Dana White hyping a pay-per-view. Still, it’s the right pick, and the more useful case for it came from another former champion this week, one who actually walked through the age question everyone keeps whispering about.
Here’s the setup. Volkanovski is 38, he’s in his second run as featherweight champion, and on Saturday he defends the belt against Movsar Evloev in Abu Dhabi. Every preview has asked some version of the same thing: is this the night Father Time finally gets a clean shot in?
My answer is no. I think Volk keeps the belt, and I think he does it the way he’s won most of his big nights, by being the smarter fighter for 25 minutes.
Dillashaw Drew the Map
T.J. Dillashaw, speaking with Mike Bohn of MMAJunkie, didn’t pretend age is fake news. “Age definitely plays a factor, especially in these lighter weight classes,” he said, before adding, “You do slow down. Your body can only take so much.” That’s an honest admission from a guy who knows exactly what the lower weight classes do to a body over time.
Then he flipped it. His argument is that Volkanovski’s fight IQ and defensive discipline cancel out the wear. “He doesn’t take a lot of punishment for the most part,” Dillashaw said, and he credited Volk’s footwork and his habit of building a specific game plan for each opponent.
That’s the whole case in one sentence, really. A 38-year-old who brawls is a 38-year-old in trouble. A 38-year-old who rarely gets hit cleanly is a guy whose odometer reads lower than his birth certificate.
Evloev Has to Catch Him First
The crux of this fight, as Dillashaw sees it, is geography. “I think it’s going to be hard for Evloev to cut him off and take the fight to where he wants it,” he said. Evloev’s path runs through pinning Volk down and dictating where the fight happens. Volk’s path runs through denying him that, stepping in, landing, and getting out before the clinch closes.
And if Evloev does get hold of him? Dillashaw pointed to the Islam Makhachev fights, noting “we’ve seen Volk deal with Makhachev and be able to get Makhachev off his back.” If you survived the top game of one of the most feared grapplers of this era and got back to your feet, you’ve earned the benefit of the doubt against anybody at 145.
To his credit, Dillashaw didn’t dismiss the challenger. “Evloev’s got a great chance to do it,” he said. But he landed on Volk’s well-roundedness and speed, calling him “a faster fighter, more evolved on his feet.” Laura Sanko is on the same page, too, having said this week she believes Volkanovski has the edge.
The Honest Counterargument
I’m not going to pretend Volk is bulletproof. The two times he got caught were against Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, two killers at the very top of the sport. That’s the list. Rare mistakes, sure, but when Volk makes one against elite opposition, it costs him.
So the question for Evloev is simple. Is he that kind of finisher? Some fans aren’t convinced he carries enough danger to put Volk away, and I lean the same direction. Evloev can win this fight, but I think he needs rounds, control time, and a version of Volk that’s a half-step slow all night. I don’t think he gets that version.
Why Adesanya’s Pick Is the Right One
The word I keep coming back to is “outlast.” This one probably won’t end with a highlight-reel knockout clip for Volk’s Instagram. It looks more like a long, disciplined night where the champion makes the challenger chase, punishes him for chasing, and keeps the fight standing more often than not. That’s a style built for a 38-year-old. You don’t need your 28-year-old legs if you’re never standing in front of the guy.
The age-panic crowd treats every veteran champion like a carton of milk with a date stamped on it. Some fighters fall off a cliff. Others, the ones who barely absorb damage and win with their brains, get to bend that curve longer than anybody expects. Volkanovski has spent his whole title run proving he belongs in the second group.
I’m taking Volk on the scorecards. Adesanya and Dillashaw are with me, and we find out Saturday, Oct. 24, right after Petr Yan defends his bantamweight belt against Merab Dvalishvili in their trilogy co-main.
