Thiago Alves used three words, and they’re the right three. Per MMA Sucka, the coach in Movsar Evloev’s corner warned Alexander Volkanovski ahead of UFC 333 that Saturday in Abu Dhabi will be a “changing of the guard.” Coaches say stuff like that every fight week, and usually it’s just air. This time I’m buying it, and I’m buying it in the most unglamorous way possible. I think Evloev takes the featherweight title on the scorecards, and I think that’s exactly how it should happen.
The Resume Nobody Wanted to Sell
Evloev is 20-0. He’s 10-0 in the UFC since debuting in 2019. Yahoo Sports, in its piece on Farid Basharat, pointed out that it took Evloev all 10 of those wins to get a title shot, and you can trace why. He has zero knockouts and zero submissions inside the Octagon, plus stretches of inactivity that let the matchmakers look elsewhere.
Look at who’s on his ledger, though. His last four wins came against Lerone Murphy, Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen and Diego Lopes. Lopes then leapfrogged him and got a pair of title fights with Volkanovski. The guy Evloev beat got two cracks at the belt before Evloev got one.
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That kind of history makes a fighter dangerous. Evloev told MMA Fighting’s José Youngs that his style may be what slowed his climb, but that winning is still the most important thing. He’s been proving that point for seven years while other people got the spotlight.
Volkanovski Pushed the Wrong Button
This is where the champ misplayed it. Volkanovski has suggested Evloev’s wrestling won’t be enough and that the challenger will eventually have to throw down. Per MMA Junkie’s Mike Bohn, Volkanovski also said Evloev can’t beat him by decision. It’s a classic veteran move: poke the undefeated grinder’s pride, dare him into a firefight, then make him pay in the pocket.
Evloev’s response was the best quote of fight week. “I was looking for finish. But when I hear that kind of talk, I don’t want to finish. I want to prove that he’s not special.”
That’s a man telling you he’ll grind out every minute out of pure spite, and I love it. Villains are great, but a stone-faced wrestler who decides to hold you down because you said he couldn’t win that way is a special kind of menace. He also told MMA Fighting, “My whole republic, my whole country waiting for me to bring that title. OK, so for me, all of this is more important than just my ego.” Translation: he’s not taking your bait, Alex.
He did leave the door cracked. Evloev said his finishing has improved since his last win and floated a first UFC finish in his first title fight: “why not? I have everything to do that.” His blueprint for it is to wrestle, tire Volkanovski out, then hunt the knockout once the opening shows up. Volkanovski’s whole dare depends on Evloev getting impatient, and nothing in 20 pro fights suggests he will. As Evloev put it, “But he’s saying he will take my confidence. Nobody can.”
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The Tell
Now look at what else Volkanovski has been talking about. Yahoo Sports flagged that he’s been pitching a retirement superfight against Justin Gaethje for UFC lightweight gold. I’m a sucker for a big-money crossover, and Volk vs. Gaethje would be a blast. A champion floating his farewell lightweight run in the same month he defends against an undefeated wrestler, though? That’s a guy with one eye on the exit. Alves can smell it. So can I.
The timing makes the decision question even juicier. The UFC just let Basharat walk at 16-0, a move Yahoo framed as the latest cautionary tale about being a nondescript winner. Asked about it by MMA Fighting, Evloev said there are plenty of fans who understand MMA and appreciate the beauty of wrestling, and that maybe they’re the reason he’s still on the roster. If he beats Volkanovski on the cards, he becomes the loudest possible rebuttal to the entertainment-first crowd, wearing a belt nobody can take off him for being boring.
Does Volkanovski have the tools to drag this into a brawl? Of course. He’s a two-time champion for a reason. But telling an unbeaten wrestler he can’t win a decision is a bet that the other guy will blink, and Evloev has gone 20 fights without blinking once.
My pick is Evloev by unanimous decision, with Volkanovski spending the back half of the fight trying to get up off the mat. The guard changes Saturday, October 24, in Abu Dhabi. It just changes slowly.
