Esteban Ribovics has picked Diego Lopes to take the BMF belt off Charles Oliveira at UFC 335. The pick reached the public through MMA Junkie, via Danny Segura, and MMA Sucka ran with it later Wednesday. Ribovics laid out his reasons in that interview, and he deserves to have them heard in his own words. My job is to say whether the pick holds up. I think it does, and the strongest argument for it has little to do with Lopes himself. It comes from the position Oliveira has put himself in.
The fight headlines the UFC’s final numbered card of 2026 on Dec. 12 in Las Vegas. Oliveira holds the BMF title after beating Max Holloway in March, a performance MMA Fighting described as dominant. He won it by grappling, and that choice drew criticism from fighters, fans and Dana White himself. That’s a strange thing to absorb as the holder of a belt that is supposed to be about violence and entertainment. You did the smart thing, you won clearly, and the boss still let it be known he didn’t love it.
The pressure is on one side
This is where Lopes sees an opening, and he said so plainly to MMA Fighting. He thinks Oliveira, the man with the most bonuses in UFC history, might come in overaggressive to make up for the Holloway fight. Lopes laughed about it and said he hopes that’s the mindset. “Let’s see who goes down first,” he said.
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He also said he doesn’t feel much pressure on his end to prove he’s exciting, and his résumé backs him up. Lopes has seven bonuses in 10 UFC appearances. He has been in there with Alexander Volkanovski, Movsar Evloev, Jean Silva and Brian Ortega. His most recent outing was a knockout of Steve Garcia at UFC White House in June. Nobody is going to accuse him of playing it safe, and nobody will boo him if he wins ugly.
Now look at what Oliveira has been saying this week. He told MMA Fighting he believes a win over Lopes puts him in line for a lightweight title shot, ahead of Arman Tsarukyan, who beat him by split decision in 2024 and just knocked out Mauricio Ruffy in the first round. Oliveira’s case rests largely on star power. “I think I sell a lot more than Arman,” he said. He went further: “If I win this fight, I would definitely be next in line, regardless of whether Gaethje comes back or not.”
That’s a sales pitch, and sales pitches have to be backed up in the cage. If the argument for jumping Tsarukyan is that Oliveira moves tickets, then a grinding decision over a featherweight call-up doesn’t make the argument for him. A finish does. A fight people talk about into January does. Oliveira even told Laerte Viana, as Championship Rounds relayed on X, that fighting later than Tsarukyan would keep his win fresher in people’s minds. He wants a memorable night. Memorable nights involve exchanges, and exchanges are where Lopes lives.
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The part that should worry Lopes fans
I’m not going to pretend this is a clean read, because Lopes himself doesn’t. He told MMA Fighting that Oliveira is the toughest matchup of his career, and he kept the reasoning simple: “he’s a guy who can knock you out and submit you, too.” Lopes added that Oliveira is dangerous both on top and from his back. That’s the man who submitted Justin Gaethje in 2022, and Gaethje now holds the unified lightweight title after stopping Ilia Topuria on the White House lawn.
Then Lopes said something that made me wince a little. “I have no problem being on my back on the ground,” he told MMA Fighting, adding that he isn’t the kind of fighter who just tries to survive until the round ends. I admire it. I also know whose back the most dangerous submissions in UFC history have come from, and it’s the guy across the cage. Lopes is fearless on the mat, and that fearlessness is the thing most likely to cost him this fight.
There’s also the weight question. Lopes has been bulking since the Garcia fight and walks around 180 pounds, 15 more than he normally would two months out from a featherweight cut. That’s real size added in a short window, and nobody knows yet how his speed and gas tank carry it over five rounds against a natural lightweight.
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Why I land with Ribovics
Still, I’d rather bet on the fighter who gets to be himself than on the one who has to be someone he wasn’t in his last fight. Lopes walks in with nothing to fix. Oliveira walks in needing to win, needing to win loudly, and needing to justify leapfrogging a man who already beat him. Those pressures push a grappler toward a firefight, and in a firefight I trust the younger, heavier-hitting Lopes to land first.
If Oliveira is disciplined, takes Lopes down early and makes him pay for that comfort on his back, this ends with a tap and a lot of us looking silly. But Oliveira has been asked all year to be the BMF instead of the smart fighter, and he has spent this week telling everyone how much he sells. On Dec. 12 in Las Vegas, I think that’s the version of him Lopes gets, and that’s the version Lopes beats.
