Conor McGregor teased a “mega announcement,” and according to a Saturday headline from Lente Desportiva, it took an unexpected turn while his UFC return stays in limbo. That headline is all that has been published about the turn itself, so I won’t fill in the blanks with guesswork. What is on the record: the Irishman still has no confirmed date for his next Octagon appearance, and the top of the lightweight division is starting to organize itself around that empty slot.
Start with July. Paddy Pimblett choked out Benoit Saint-Denis in 52 seconds on what Bloody Elbow described as McGregor’s comeback card. Athlon has also run a headline about a doctor’s early diagnosis of a McGregor knee injury at UFC 329. Beyond that headline, I don’t have the medical details, and nobody should pretend otherwise.
The belt is where this gets interesting. Justin Gaethje, 37, beat Ilia Topuria in the main event of UFC Freedom 250 at the White House in June. Topuria’s team threw in the towel after four rounds, which handed El Matador his first career loss. After the win, Gaethje suggested he would sit out the rest of 2026. Since then, according to EssentiallySports, he has mentioned two possible paths: retirement or a fight with McGregor.
Charles Oliveira, who submitted Gaethje in 2022, described the situation this way when he spoke to Sherdog: “He says he won’t fight this year, but that he would if it were against Conor. Then he starts talking about retirement.” Oliveira believes the UFC’s first step should be sitting down with Gaethje to find out what he actually plans to do.
Plenty of other fighters want that answer too. Arman Tsarukyan, who beat Oliveira by split decision in 2024, recently knocked out Mauricio Ruffy in the first round. Alexander Volkanovski floated a champion-versus-champion retirement fight with Gaethje on the WhoTheFookPodcast, but he has to get past the undefeated Movsar Evloev at featherweight first. Oliveira defends the BMF title against Diego Lopes at UFC 335 on December 12 at T-Mobile Arena. Lopes is taking those BMF stakes seriously after McGregor, Nate Diaz and Dana White all criticized Oliveira’s grappling-heavy win over Max Holloway at UFC 326 in March. Oliveira opened between -148 and -172 in that fight.
Sal’s Take
I have one standing rule that has saved me more money than any tout ever made me: never lay short odds on a guy coming off a long layoff. If McGregor and Gaethje somehow get booked, you’ll see a flood of money on the name. That’s the kind of narrative pick I avoid. A 37-year-old champion who has already said he’s taking the year off, facing a fighter whose last headline involved a knee, gives me two big unknowns and almost no data. Until there’s a signed contract and a clean medical, I’m treating every McGregor announcement as a press release. The lightweight dates that actually exist start December 12, when Oliveira and Lopes find out who wants to stand and trade.
