Colby Covington has never met a microphone he didn’t want to light on fire, and this week he aimed the flamethrower at Carlos Prates.
The former interim UFC welterweight champion went on The Ariel Helwani Show and was asked about the fight everyone expects next at 170 pounds: Islam Makhachev defending the UFC welterweight title against Prates. BJPenn.com notes nothing has been announced yet. The expectation is strong enough that Colby already filed his prediction, and it was about as subtle as a folding chair.
“Nah, no chance, bro,” Covington said. “Carlos has nothing for him. He’s just a straight striker. That’s going to be the easiest fight of Makhachev’s career.”
Then he got specific, which is the part I respect. Lots of guys say the other dude gets smashed and walk off. Colby picked the finish. “He’s going to take him down and submit him. I think he takes him down and submits him with like a kimura or a head-and-arm choke.”
I think Covington is right about the route and wrong about the number. Prates loses this fight the way he describes far more often than he wins it. But saying a guy has zero chance is promo talk, and I’m not signing off on zero.
Colby Drew the Right Map
Strip away the swagger and Covington’s breakdown is basically the same one BJPenn.com laid out. Prates is known as a remarkable striker, and the whole puzzle of this fight is whether he can survive the suffocating pressure that comes with Makhachev’s wrestling. That’s the fight. Everything else is decoration.
The smartest thing Colby said had nothing to do with kimuras. He gave Prates credit for being able to go five rounds, then said the Brazilian “does get a little tired.” And because he’s Colby, he couldn’t stop at the scouting report. He blamed it on a “terrible habit, smoking cigarettes” and said Prates “needs to quit that if he ever wants to be a legitimate champion.”
That’s peak Covington: a real tactical point and a roast in the same sentence. And the tactical point holds up. A striker who fades late, against a champion whose game is built on grinding you down until your hips stop answering? That’s the nightmare matchup. Prates can win the first few exchanges and still lose, because what matters is how he looks in the fourth round with Makhachev’s chest on his back.
Where Colby Oversells It
The overreach is calling this the easiest fight of Makhachev’s career. That’s a big swing at the résumé of a guy BJPenn.com describes as chasing a place among the most successful UFC fighters of all time. You don’t get to that conversation by facing pushovers, and nobody gets a title shot at welterweight without putting in real work. BJPenn.com says Prates has built a great body of work to earn his.
Strikers also get something wrestlers have to take away from them: the opening. Every takedown starts with closing distance, and closing distance on a remarkable striker means walking through the one part of the fight Prates owns. One clean shot changes the math on everything Colby described. Low odds? Sure. Zero? Come on.
Colby isn’t the only one with an opinion here, either. Ian Machado Garry has gone the other direction and said Prates can beat Makhachev. I’d pay to watch those two argue it out in the same studio.
The Morales Tell
This is where Covington accidentally makes the case for Prates. When Helwani’s conversation turned to Michael Morales, Colby got cautious fast. He said we’ve “got to see how his takedown defense is,” that Morales hasn’t been in “high-level five-round fights,” and that he’s “still unproven.”
So in Colby’s own telling, Prates is the guy we know can do five rounds, and Morales is the question mark. His zero-chance verdict on Prates comes down to the stylistic matchup with Makhachev. Colby clearly rates him as a contender. That’s a fair distinction. It also means Colby’s ranking has Prates as the most proven challenger in the conversation, which is a weird thing to say right after calling him the champ’s easiest night ever.
And it’s been a loud week for Colby. Jon Jones fired back at him during the Gable Steveson debate with “Boy, you’re obsessed with me,” according to BJPenn.com. Covington is picking fights in every direction. It’s his best weapon, and I’m glad it’s back.
If the UFC books Makhachev vs. Prates, I’m picking Makhachev too, probably on the mat, probably late. But the first time Prates sprawls and makes Makhachev pay with a counter, Colby’s no-chance call is going to look a lot more like a smoker’s cough than a prophecy.
