Colby Covington has a freestyle wrestling match with Khamzat Chimaev in five weeks, and he’s training like there’s a chance it ends with somebody throwing elbows in a singlet. He told Ariel Helwani as much, and Helwani posted it on X Wednesday.
“Chaos is unpredictable,” Covington said, before laying out the scenario he’s planning around: “If he gets chippy because he’s mad that he can’t beat me in freestyle wrestling... I’m preparing myself for a fight.”
He also said he’ll “always watch my six.” Very tactical. Very Colby.
View post on X
My instinct with anything Covington says into a microphone is to discount it by about half, the same way I discount a guy at the bar telling me his horse can’t lose. This is the man who built a UFC career on promo work. But I’ve gone back over what we know about Chimaev since May, and I’ve landed somewhere I didn’t expect. Covington is selling a brawl, sure. He’s also describing, pretty accurately, the one way Chimaev has ever come apart.
The Strickland file
Start with UFC 328 on May 9 in Newark. Sean Strickland took a split decision and the middleweight title, and it was the first loss of Chimaev’s career. Dricus du Plessis, who has spent 50 combined minutes in a cage with Strickland across two title fights, broke down what happened on Fight Forecast, and his read is the most useful scouting report on Chimaev you’ll find right now.
Du Plessis said Chimaev went all in during the first round, worked very hard, and got very tired. Then, once Strickland started stopping takedowns, du Plessis said Chimaev was forced to fight Strickland’s fight. MMA Fighting’s Morning Report crew added a sharp note of their own: Chimaev’s best work against Strickland came when he simply committed to striking.
Now take the striking away. That’s what RAF does. Chimaev’s best weapon that night is illegal on Nov. 14 at Etihad Arena, and the plan that failed him (grab, drag, grind) becomes the entire menu. If Covington can do to Chimaev what Strickland did, stuffing the early shots and keeping the pace up, then the version of Khamzat that shows up in the back half of that match is a tired, irritated man who just lost a belt and hasn’t gotten over it.
He hasn’t gotten over it
That last part is documented. Two days before Helwani’s post, Chimaev offered Strickland a single lemon emoji on X, which is slang for $1 million, and wrote: “Send me location and let’s fight don’t care outside inside the cage.” The two had buried the hatchet after UFC 328, then started taking shots at each other in the media again. Nassourdine Imavov looks like the next challenger for Strickland, so Chimaev is stuck waiting, and he’s offering seven figures for a street fight in the meantime.
That’s the guy Covington is about to wrestle. A fighter who just publicly told the champion he doesn’t care where the fight happens is a fighter whose temper is a live variable. I’m not predicting a melee. I’m saying Covington’s worst-case scenario has more supporting evidence than most of the things he says.
Where I get grumpy
Here’s my problem with buying Covington stock. He’s the current RAF titleholder, which matters, and this is a cruiserweight crossover championship match, so he’s defending something. But his most recent scheduled appearance on the mats went nowhere. He was set for a submission-only match with Mayton Perea at Hype in Quito this past weekend and got replaced at the 11th hour by Juan Albarello. Hype didn’t say why. Perea tapped Albarello with a foot americana in just over two minutes.
I’m not going to invent a reason for that pullout, because nobody’s given one. But when a guy scratches with no explanation days before he starts telling everyone how prepared he is, I write it down. A healthy, sharp Covington against a frustrated Chimaev is an interesting fight. A Covington carrying something we don’t know about is a different conversation, and right now we can’t tell which one we’re getting.
Also, a reality check for anybody getting cute: Strickland didn’t beat Chimaev by outwrestling him in a wrestling match. Du Plessis said Strickland is very hard to hold down, can always go five rounds and drags people into his style. The cardio and the getups did the damage, along with Chimaev’s fatigue. Covington’s case rests on the same engine. If his gas tank isn’t what it was, Chimaev’s early burst might be enough to win it before any of the frustration stuff kicks in.
My take
The talk about protecting himself and defending himself is for the highlight package. The useful part of Covington’s comments is the premise underneath them: he thinks Chimaev can’t beat him on the mats and will get mad about it. Du Plessis’ breakdown gives that premise real legs. The Hype no-show and the unanswered questions around it give me just as much reason to wait before I trust it.
If Covington is right about the first part, the second part takes care of itself. Watch the first two minutes in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 14. If Chimaev’s shots are landing early, ignore everything Colby said. If they’re getting stuffed and Khamzat starts breathing through his mouth, start watching the officials.
