Chris Weidman doesn’t know how Alex Pereira vs. Sergei Pavlovich is going to play out, and he said so plainly. Then he picked Pereira anyway.
The former UFC middleweight champion broke down the UFC 335 co-main event on The Deep Waters, calling the five-round heavyweight fight close to even before siding with the Brazilian. Weidman said the fight excites him precisely because he has no idea what’s going to happen, and he called it essentially a pick’em.
His pick came down to what’s going on inside Pereira’s head after the worst night of his heavyweight run so far.
Weidman said he has to go with Pereira because the Brazilian’s back is against the wall. In his read, Pereira is upset and frustrated, carrying a chip on his shoulder off the loss, and every time he’s lost before, he has come back and won.
Weidman used Pereira’s loss to Israel Adesanya as the template. After that one, Weidman noted, Pereira moved up to 205 and did his thing there. He credited Pereira with a championship mindset and said he expects him to figure it out, while admitting it’s a tough fight to call.
The blueprint, according to Weidman
His tactical read starts at the shins. Weidman said calf kicks are the weapon that could swing the fight for Pereira, and he wants the former two-division champ to win the kicking battle from the opening bell. “I think the kicks. I think he could out kick him and kind of stay out of boxing range to start the fight and kind of cut down the legs of Pavlovich,” he said.
That’s a specific plan. Stay long, keep the Russian’s hands out of the conversation, and make every step forward cost him something.
Where both men stand
The fight goes down Dec. 12 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and it carries real weight in the heavyweight title picture. Pereira, a former titleholder in two divisions, moved up and got stopped by TKO against champion Ciryl Gane in his heavyweight debut. Pavlovich is ranked No. 2, has already fought for interim gold, and rides a three-fight winning streak into this one. A fourth straight win would put him firmly in line for a title shot, with Gane holding the belt.
The co-main sits under a BMF title fight between titleholder Charles Oliveira and Diego Lopes. Lopes, a two-time featherweight title challenger, will be making his lightweight debut, so there’s a weight-class experiment on both of the top two fights.
Quick take
Weidman’s emotional case for Pereira is fine, but the leg kick case is the one that holds up. Pavlovich is the guy you least want to stand in front of at heavyweight, and Pereira doesn’t need to win a firefight with him. He needs Pavlovich planting on a sore lead leg by Round 3 and second-guessing every entry after that. If Pereira gets dragged into a slugfest instead, he’s staring at two straight losses at heavyweight and Pavlovich gets his title shot at Gane. Five rounds gives the calf kick plan plenty of time to work. It also gives Pavlovich five rounds to find one right hand. Dec. 12 is going to be loud.
