Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan headline UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, Oct. 10, at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. Whoever wins walks out of a room the size of a high school gym standing a lot closer to a middleweight title shot. The UFC’s X account has the card going live at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with 12 fights on the full lineup.
The streaks are what make it interesting. Allen has won three straight. Duncan has won five in a row. MMAmania billed it as a veteran vs. prospect matchup. On their preview show, MMA Fighting’s Jed Meshew and Mike Heck went a step further and asked whether this is do-or-die for Allen’s title hopes, and for both men.
The early picks lean toward the veteran. Lindy’s Sports, in a breakdown republished by Yahoo, took Allen by decision. The reasoning was that Allen’s wrestling can drag Duncan into deep water, and that Duncan’s best path is a puncher’s chance. That’s a fair read on paper. It also means Duncan only needs to be right once. The UFC’s social team spent Friday posting a YouTube short calling Duncan “a certified hooper,” which I guess counts as fight week promotion now.
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The rest of the main card
The co-feature has Matheus Camilo against Jai Herbert at lightweight. Camilo has won his last two by stoppage. Herbert comes in off a knockout of Mandel Nallo, though Lindy’s flagged his chin and his consistency as problems and picked Camilo by first-round TKO.
Loopy Godinez meets Ketlen Souza at strawweight. Godinez is 9-6 in the UFC, a record that doesn’t match how good she looks on her best nights, and Lindy’s has her winning a decision with her wrestling.
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III is the betting angle everybody’s circling. MMAmania made the fight going the distance its “Weekend Lock” at -150. The numbers back it up. Fili has one finish since 2019, and Kamaka has zero finishes in his UFC career. Fili is +250 by decision and Kamaka is +200 by decision, which tells you the books aren’t expecting anybody to go to sleep. Both outlets flagged it as a Fight of the Night candidate, and two guys who like to stand in the pocket for 15 minutes usually deliver.
Bantamweight Malcolm Wellmaker opens the main card against Otari Tanzilovi. Wellmaker opened his UFC run with two knockouts, then dropped two straight and moved his camp to American Top Team. Lindy’s likes him to bounce back by TKO in a stand-up fight.
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On the prelims, Niko Price fights Leon Shahbazyan in what Price has confirmed is his UFC retirement fight. Gerald Meerschaert is on a five-fight skid against Julius Walker, who is 11 years younger. Heavyweight RJ Harris, coming off a knockout debut, faces Allen Frye Jr. in what Lindy’s called its most confident pick on the card. I’ll be watching that one with a drink in hand, because a real heavyweight prospect is rarer than a quiet fight week at the Apex.
My take
I’m taking Allen by decision. Three straight wins and a wrestling game that drains people over five rounds is the more reliable route. Still, five straight wins don’t happen by accident, and Duncan’s hands are the one thing on this card that can tear up a game plan in a single exchange. If Allen gets lazy on his entries in the first two rounds, the title conversation flips on Saturday night.
