Brendan Allen spent fight week saying the fourth and fifth rounds would belong to him. He was half right. For a good portion of Saturday’s UFC Vegas 122 headliner at Meta APEX, Allen (28-7 MMA, 16-4 UFC) stood in the pocket and traded with Christian Leroy Duncan (15-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC). For a guy whose rear-naked choke is the most dangerous thing he owns, I’d call that brave and not strictly required. Then, in the fifth round, with a decision sitting right there, he kept hunting and finished it with the choke.
That last part is what I keep coming back to. A fighter who could ride out Round 5 for a decision has every incentive to stay safe and collect the paycheck. Allen worked for the finish the whole fight, and when Duncan made mistakes, he cashed one in. The choke threat is real, and Duncan found out that a lapse in the final round costs the same as a lapse in the first.
The Problem With Beating Duncan
Mike Bohn’s matchmaking column for MMA Junkie made the honest point. Duncan was a low-ranked opponent, so the win probably doesn’t move Allen up the middleweight rankings. Sherdog, Fightomic and MMA Sucka all ran their own next-fight pieces within hours of the main event, and they all circle the same question. What does a fourth straight win over a lower-ranked name actually buy you?
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For Allen, the answer should be the size of the stack. Bohn noted that Allen’s 15 octagon wins since 2020 are the most of anyone in the UFC. Nobody on the roster has piled up wins at that rate, and he’s done it while taking whoever the promotion puts across from him. Bohn also pointed out that Allen catches criticism from fans, mostly for reasons that don’t hold up, and I agree. A guy with 15 wins in that span isn’t padding anything. He’s working. At some point the volume has to count for more than a polite nod from the rankings panel.
Dricus Du Plessis Is the Fight
Allen called out Dricus Du Plessis again after the Duncan win, which won’t shock anyone who follows him. He’s been at it for years. The matchup has made sense at several points along the way, and it makes the most sense right now, because Du Plessis is stuck.
Here’s the situation as Bohn laid it out. Du Plessis (24-3 MMA, 10-1 UFC) lost the 185-pound title to Khamzat Chimaev in August, then came back to beat Kamaru Usman in a June main event. He wants the belt back. Champion Sean Strickland is in limbo amid a contract dispute with the UFC, though, and both Nassourdine Imavov and Chimaev are waiting in the wings for rematches. That’s a lot of traffic between Du Plessis and a title shot, and none of it is moving.
So Du Plessis needs a fight that keeps him active and keeps his name in the conversation without burning a year. Allen is that fight. It’s a title eliminator in everything but the official label, and if the Strickland situation sorts itself out, the winner walks into the room with the strongest case for being next. Du Plessis gets to prove he still belongs at the top. Allen gets the ranked scalp his streak has been missing. Both sides win the negotiation before anyone walks out.
I also like what the Duncan fight told us about how Allen would approach it. He showed he’ll stand and exchange for long stretches of a five-round fight without folding, and he showed he still has the patience to wait for an opening in the final round instead of grabbing a decision. That combination matters against anyone at the top of the division. If Du Plessis ever surrenders his back in a scramble, Allen has already demonstrated what happens next.
If the Answer Is No
The obvious risk is that Du Plessis decides to sit and wait for the title picture to clear rather than gamble on a fighter ranked below him. I’d understand it from his side, even if I wouldn’t respect it much. With Imavov and Chimaev both in line for rematches, there’s an argument that Du Plessis has more to lose than gain by taking anyone outside that group.
If that’s how it plays out, Allen’s camp should refuse another booking like Duncan. Bohn’s point about the rankings applies here too: another win over a lower-ranked opponent adds a 16th win since 2020 to the pile and does almost nothing for his position. The better move is to demand someone ranked above him and accept a short wait to get it. The streak has earned him the right to be picky for once.
My pick is simple. Book Allen vs. Du Plessis as the next middleweight main event that doesn’t involve the belt, and let the winner take the first open title shot once Strickland’s contract situation is settled. Allen has asked for this fight for years, and after a fifth-round choke on a night he could have coasted, he has finally run out of people to beat on the way to it.
