Alexander Volkov walks into Etihad Arena on Saturday as the betting favorite against Rizvan Kuniev, but only barely. FanDuel has Volkov at -122 and Kuniev at +100 for their UFC 333 main card heavyweight bout in Abu Dhabi, which is about as close to a coin flip as a top-five guy gets against someone with three UFC fights. The pair are expected to walk out around 2:40 p.m. ET, with the card streaming on Paramount+.
The stakes are lopsided. Volkov (40-11 MMA, 14-5 UFC) is the No. 4 heavyweight and has won six of his past seven, most recently beating Jailton Almeida and then Waldo Cortes-Acosta in May. The lone loss in that stretch was the split decision to Ciryl Gane that plenty of people, MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom included, consider a robbery. Gane now holds the undisputed belt and defends it against Josh Hokit at UFC 334 on Nov. 14. Tom also wrote that Dana White promised to take care of Volkov after the Gane fight, and that White may not have even acknowledged Volkov at the UFC 333 press conference this week. So the guy with 40 pro wins is being asked to beat another rising contender to prove a point his boss apparently can’t see from the dais.
Kuniev has moved fast. MMA Fighting lists him at 14-3-1 with one no contest, while MMA Junkie has him at 15-3-1, so pick your bookkeeper. Either way, he’s 2-1 in the UFC, with the loss being a split decision to Curtis Blaydes in his debut, followed by wins over Almeida and Tyrell Fortune in July. MMA Fighting ranks him ninth; the Meta UFC rankings have him fifth. He’s been close to unbeatable since 2017 by MMA Fighting’s account, though that run carries an asterisk in the form of a positive drug test during his PFL stint in 2023. A win here pushes him into the top five and probably into somebody’s title conversation.
View post on X
The common opponent is Almeida, whom both men beat. That doesn’t settle anything, but it tells you why the books didn’t hang a bigger number on the veteran.
Tom’s official pick is Volkov by decision. His case is that Volkov’s length and straight-line attacks can disrupt Kuniev’s rhythm and let “Drago” pull away late, with the caveat that things could get ugly along the cage if Volkov can’t control the range. For what it’s worth, Tom is 115-73-1 on UFC main cards in 2026 and went 4-2 at the last event. The evening was also running hot on finishes before the heavyweights came out, with MMA Fighting’s live blog counting four straight first-round stoppages after Aaron Pico’s win.
Sal’s take: At -122 you’re paying for roughly a 55 percent chance on Volkov, and Kuniev at even money implies 50, so the book is basically telling you it has no strong opinion. I usually love the dog in that spot, and I’ll admit Kuniev at +100 against a 14-5 UFC vet tempts me, given the only blemish on his UFC ledger is a split with Blaydes. But Tom’s cage-clinch caveat is the whole bet. If Volkov keeps it at distance, -122 is a fair price for a man with a title shot riding on it. If he gets pinned, that even-money ticket looks like a steal. I’d sprinkle on Kuniev and keep the rent money in the drawer.
