Alex Pereira has a horse in this race, and he still picked the guy who beat him. On The Ariel Helwani Show, the UFC light heavyweight champion said he expects Ciryl Gane to keep the heavyweight title against Josh Hokit in the UFC 334 main event on November 14 at Madison Square Garden. His case against Hokit had nothing to do with power or wrestling. It was about conditioning, which is the right place to start with any challenger getting his first five-round fight.
“I think Ciryl Gane (wins),” Pereira said. “I don’t think (Hokit is ready). He is on a winning streak, but against opponents that are not in a good moment in the UFC.”
Then he got to the part that matters. “If you see the last fights, he was actually getting very tired. Those guys aren’t even in a good moment in the UFC, and he was already getting tired. So imagine a five-round fight. Unless he really changes from the last fight to this one, it’s gonna be hard.”
Why Pereira is watching so closely
The context makes the pick more interesting. Pereira wanted this date himself. Gane beat him by stoppage in June for the interim heavyweight belt at UFC Freedom 250, and Pereira complained afterward about illegal shots in that loss. Gane was then elevated to undisputed champion when Tom Aspinall vacated, and the UFC gave the shot to Hokit instead of running back Gane vs. Pereira. That cost Pereira, for now, his chance to become the first three-division champion in UFC history. He has to get through Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 335 in December, and he’s said he plans to face the November 14 winner in 2027.
Then there’s the Hokit feud. The two have been going at each other since the buildup to UFC Freedom 250, where Hokit beat Derrick Lewis on the same card where Gane took the interim title from Pereira. So Pereira has every personal reason to talk Hokit down. I’d normally discount a pick like that. But he’s backing the man who stopped him five months ago, which cuts against his own ego, and the fatigue argument holds up on its own logic.
Fifteen minutes is a different sport than 25
This is Hokit’s fifth UFC fight. Plenty of fighters reach a title shot quickly, and speed alone shouldn’t disqualify anyone. What should worry his camp is the specific thing Pereira flagged. If Hokit was slowing down inside three-round fights against opponents Pereira describes as on the downswing, the championship rounds add 10 more minutes against the best heavyweight on the roster. Rounds 4 and 5 are where a tired heavyweight’s defense goes first. The hands drift down, the head stops moving off the center line, and every takedown attempt gets a half step slower and a lot more readable.
And heavyweight gives him no weight cut to blame. There’s no shaving down to 265 that leaves you empty in the third. If the tank runs low up there, that’s pacing, training, or both, and those are fixable over a camp. Pereira knows that, which is why he hedged with “unless he really changes.” It’s an honest hedge, and I’ll admit it’s the part of the quote I like most. Fighters who make real adjustments between fights (and between rounds) are the ones who outrun their résumé.
What a real change would look like
For Hokit, adjusting probably means accepting that he can’t spend the first two rounds at the same pace he’d use in a three-rounder. He needs to choose his entries and stop chasing exchanges he doesn’t need. A challenger who empties himself in Round 1 trying to make it ugly is giving the champion a 20-minute fight against a man running on fumes. The guys who upset champions in five-round fights usually find a pace they can hold, and that discipline is hard to build in one camp when your last few fights rewarded you for winning ugly.
The opposition point matters too. Pereira’s read is that Hokit’s streak came against fighters he considers past their best, and Lewis is the one name on the record that the feud keeps bringing up. Beating fighters on the way down is still beating them. It tells you a lot less about what happens when the other guy is the reigning champion and has 25 minutes to find the openings.
The pick
I’m with Pereira. Gane by decision or late stoppage, and I’d lean late. The reason is the one Poatan gave: a challenger with conditioning questions, five fights into his UFC career, walking into five rounds against a champion who just finished a former two-division titleholder. I’ll give Hokit the early rounds as a real threat, because desperate, fresh heavyweights are dangerous. Every minute after the 15-minute mark tilts toward the champion.
Pereira gets to watch from wherever he’s camping for Pavlovich. If Gane does what both of us expect at MSG on November 14, the rematch Pereira wanted in the first place is one December win away.
