Alex Pereira has a pick for a fight that doesn’t exist yet, and he’s going with the guy in the upset column.
“Alex Pereira is backing Paulo Costa to beat Magomed Ankalaev,” Sherdog wrote on X late Monday, adding that Pereira believes relentless aggression could be the key to victory.
Sherdog’s accompanying story says Pereira thinks aggression would play a significant role in a potential Costa vs. Ankalaev matchup. The reporting doesn’t lay out the full breakdown beyond that core idea: Costa walks forward, keeps walking forward, and makes the fight ugly. Two words in Sherdog’s framing are doing real work. It called this a potential matchup, and it cast a Costa win as the upset. Nobody has booked this fight.
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Pereira’s opinion on light heavyweight carries more weight than most. He’s a former two-time UFC light heavyweight champion and a former middleweight champion, the first fighter to hold both of those belts in the UFC. He’s 13-4 in MMA, sits at No. 6 in Knockout Daily’s heavyweight rankings, and is ranked No. 10 in the UFC’s men’s pound-for-pound rankings as of September 22, 2026. Before any of that, he held Glory titles at middleweight and light heavyweight at the same time.
Costa, a fellow Brazilian, is 16-4 and No. 8 in Knockout Daily’s light heavyweight rankings (Meta’s UFC rankings had him at No. 4 as of June 20, 2026). His last fight was April 11, 2026. Pressure is basically his origin story. He went 8-0 on the regional scene in Brazil with seven knockouts and one submission, then opened his UFC run in 2017 by stopping Garreth McLellan in the first round, Oluwale Bamgbose in the second and former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks in the second. He added a second-round TKO of Uriah Hall at UFC 226 in July 2018.
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So when Pereira says the forward-marching version of Costa is the one that wins, he’s describing the version that built Costa’s name in the first place.
Whether the UFC listens is another matter. A countryman with two UFC belts endorsing the matchup won’t hurt Costa’s case if he wants a big name next, and it’s the kind of public nudge matchmakers notice.
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Pereira, meanwhile, has his own business at heavyweight. He faces Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 335 on December 12, 2026, on a card headlined by Oliveira vs. Lopes. Pavlovich is a guy who also likes to walk forward and throw, so Pereira may get to test his own theory up close.
